The Government of Mexico reduced its GDP growth forecast for this year from 4.1 to 2.4% when it presented the Economic Package for 2023, which contains the country’s economic and fiscal policy.
According to the General Criteria for Economic Policy 2023 of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), the growth of the Mexican GDP will be between a range of 1.9% and 2.9% at the end of 2022, and between 1.9% and 3%. for next year.
This growth is in line with the estimate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which also projected a growth of 2.4% at the end of 2022, although it is far from the 2.1% estimated by this multilateral organization.
According to the head of the SHCP, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, the 2023 Economic Package “is consistent with and maintains the Republican austerity policy, as well as no debt and no tax increases. “
Ramírez de la O stressed that these economic and fiscal policy criteria for 2023 are presented in the midst of “going forward challenges” presented by the global economy; although he contrasted that “the Mexican economy has a solid growth base.”
The head of the Ministry of Finance maintained that public finances will remain “healthy” at the end of 2022, “despite the high cost of the gasoline subsidy to avoid increasing inflation levels .”
Even with this subsidy, he added, public revenues are greater than those established in the 2022 Economic Package, “without increasing the level of debt” and for which he projected budget revenues of the order of 7.1 billion pesos (about 355,000 million dollars).
In this context, Ramírez de la O stressed that “the public debt will remain on a stable and sustainable path, respecting the fiscal goals and the debt ceilings established by Congress.”
The Package estimates that the debt will be 48.9% as a proportion of GDP, less than that approved by the federal Congress for 2022, which was 51%, while it estimated that in 2023 it “maintains its downward trajectory” and stands at 49.4 %.
Likewise, Ramírez de la O affirmed that the Mexican government has proposed “successful actions” to control inflation, such as support for fuel prices and the package against inflation and famine (Pacic).
For this reason, he calculated an inflation rate of 7.7%, “in line with the estimate of the fiscal and monetary stance imposed by the Bank of Mexico, as well as an interest rate of 9.5%, while until the last monetary policy of The Mexican central bank places it at 8.5%.
“In addition to this lower pressure on international prices that we expect at this point, in Mexico, and in this community, we can expect inflation to begin to show a downward trajectory towards the central bank’s objective (of 3%) since August,” he commented.
He also trusted that the exchange rate will position itself at 20.6 pesos per dollar and oil production of 1.87 million barrels of crude oil per day and an international price of 68.7 dollars per barrel.
In turn, an interest rate of 8.5% and a nominal exchange rate of 20.6 pesos per dollar are expected at the end of the year, in line with the economic environment and the results observed to date.
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