The U.S. Embassy urges Americans in Jalisco and Nayarit to prepare for heavy rain as El Niño strengthens. Here’s what forecasters expect.
Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, November 13, 2026 – The U.S. Embassy in Mexico is asking Americans in Jalisco, Nayarit, and five other western states to prepare for possible bouts of heavy rain as El Niño strengthens. In an email sent through the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program and reviewed by Vallarta Daily, the embassy warned that downpours could flood roads, knock out power, and trigger landslides.
Friday’s forecast from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional called for isolated rain in Jalisco and Nayarit, with heavier rain in parts of Baja California and Sonora. The embassy’s message covers those four states as well as Baja California Sur, Sinaloa and Colima. It singles out Baja California, where the rainy season runs from November through April.
What El Niño could mean for Vallarta
El Niño develops when surface waters in the equatorial Pacific warm, changing wind patterns and shifting where rain falls. In its Nov. 12 outlook, NOAA put the odds of a strong or very strong El Niño from January through March at about 80%. That figure describes the strength of the Pacific climate pattern. The timing and intensity of any rain around the bay will depend on local weather.
Earlier this month, meteorologists at the Universidad de Guadalajara said they expect above-average rain in Jalisco in November, as the state moves into its dry season. In Puerto Vallarta, historical rainfall records put the November average at just under an inch for the whole month. September averages more than 11 inches.
A single downpour can still close roads. In September, rain from Hurricane Polo flooded streets in Las Glorias, where standing water was still disrupting traffic the next day. In August 2021, Hurricane Nora pushed the Río Cuale and Río Pitillal over their banks, damaging buildings and washing out bridges.
Where to get updates around the bay
The embassy advises residents and travelers to follow local forecasts and instructions from state and municipal Protección Civil, keep a way to receive alerts during a power outage, and have an emergency kit ready in case travel is disrupted. In Puerto Vallarta, check Protección Civil y Bomberos. Across the state line, Bahía de Banderas sends municipal alerts through its SIGER BB app.
Stay away from riverbeds, the embassy says, and turn around if water covers the road, even if it looks still. U.S. citizens who need consular assistance can call 55-2579-2000 from Mexico or 011-52-55-2579-2000 from the United States.
At the coast, the embassy advises staying off beaches and out of the water before, during, and immediately after a storm. Runoff can temporarily affect beach water quality, and rough surf and strong currents can linger after the rain stops. If lifeguards still have a red flag up when you get to the beach, stay out of the water.
