Mexico expects more than 50 million international tourists in 2026 as air arrivals fall and officials work on incentives for new flights.
Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, November 12, 2026 — Mexico is looking at finishing the year with over 50m international tourists despite a fall in the number of tourists flying in. Tourism Secretary Josefina Rodriguez Zamora gave that forecast at the ITB Americas trade fair in Guadalajara, stating that her department is currently working on a range of incentives to get the flights back and to assist airlines in opening up new routes.
Mexico counts anyone who lives overseas and spends at least one night in the country as an international tourist. For 2025, the figure was 2025 m, up 6.1% on the previous year. As of August this year, the Secretaría de Turismo has reported 32.7 m such visits, up 3.9% on the corresponding period of the previous year.
A lot of that growth was due to overnight stays in Mexico’s border areas. Overnight stays there were up 15% through August, while tourist arrivals by air were down 4.8% according to an analysis of the figures by Reporte Gemes.
Rodriguez Zamora puts the drop in air arrivals down to fewer seats available and higher fuel costs, which in turn have driven up fares. She anticipates that Air Canada, American Airlines and Aeromexico will be launching new routes in the first half of 2027. The incentive program she has in mind would be a joint effort between the federal government, the states and the airlines.
In September, Rodríguez Zamora had named Puerto Vallarta along with Cancún and Los Cabos as places where federal and state funds could be used to promote routes that the airlines had withdrawn from. At the Guadalajara fair, she put forward a more specific proposal for Tulum whereby airlines establishing new international or seasonal routes could have up to 100% of certain airport service and landing fees covered in their first year. What Puerto Vallarta would actually get is still not clear.
Puerto Vallarta airport had 354k passengers in October, down from 441k the previous year. The airport was briefly shut down by Hurricane Simón in October, but the decline was already well underway. International traffic was down 19.4% through September.
Two Canadian routes are already on Vallarta’s winter schedule. Porter Airlines began non-stop service from Edmonton on 3rd November and intends to keep it running three times a week until 10th April. Flair Airlines is set to commence its weekly non-stop service from Montreal on 16th December.
