The Pacific hurricane season has moved from forecast to formation. Amanda is already far from Mexico’s coast, but the next part of the map is closer and less settled. Forecasters are now watching two separate areas expected to form off southern Mexico, one with a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression by early next week. The timing, movement, and location leave several coastlines watching a system that does not yet exist, but already has official attention.
Two new areas are now under watch
Forecasters are watching two new areas of low pressure expected to form off the southern coast of Mexico, adding a closer early-season concern after Tropical Storm Amanda became the first named storm of the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
The latest Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center says the first area is expected to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. The agency said “environmental conditions appear conducive” for development, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly northwestward or northward. Its formation chance remains near zero through 48 hours, then rises to 50 percent through seven days.
A second area is forecast to form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico early next week. That system has a lower chance of development, but it is still on the map. The National Hurricane Center gives it a near-zero chance of formation through 48 hours and a 30 percent chance through seven days.
Amanda is named but far from land
Amanda strengthened on Wednesday morning from a tropical depression into Tropical Storm Amanda, the first named system of the season in the Eastern Pacific. At 8 a.m. Pacific time, its center was about 1,475 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. The storm was moving northwest at 8 mph.
There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect. The National Hurricane Center listed land hazards as “None,” while forecasting additional strengthening over the next couple of days before weakening later this weekend.
Amanda’s forecast track keeps it over open Pacific water. The storm’s development still marks the first organized step in a season that Mexican forecasters had already expected to be active. Mexico’s federal water authority has projected 18 to 21 named tropical cyclones in the Pacific during the 2026 season.
The next names would be Boris and Cristina
The two newer areas do not have names. They would only be named if they strengthened into tropical storms. A tropical depression can form without receiving a name.
If the first system after Amanda reaches tropical-storm strength, it would become Boris. A later named storm would be Cristina, according to the 2026 Eastern Pacific name list included in an earlier season outlook.
The watch area closer to southern Mexico is the one to follow more carefully in the coming days. It has not formed, so there is no official storm track, no landfall forecast, and no coastal warning tied to it. That is the uneasy part of early tropical development. The broad signal appears before the center exists.
What the forecast does and does not say
The current forecast does not show an immediate threat to Puerto Vallarta from Amanda. It also does not say that either of the two newer systems will become a storm. The outlook says conditions may allow development after the low-pressure areas form.
That distinction matters in weather reporting. A formation chance is not a landfall forecast. It is a probability that a tropical depression or storm could develop within a set period. The first system has moved into the medium-risk category for the seven-day window. The second remains low-risk, but the seven-day chance increased to 30 percent in the late-morning outlook.
The Eastern Pacific season began May 15 and runs through November 30. Amanda arrived early in the season, and the next several days will show whether the basin is only producing long-distance storms over open water or whether development starts closer to Mexico’s southern coast.
