PUERTO VALLARTA (PVDN) – The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has begun with an unexpected calm, as the region has not experienced a single storm formation in the six weeks since its commencement. However, meteorologists predict a change in this pattern as two tropical storms are anticipated to develop off the coast of Mexico this week.
Typically, the first named storm emerges around June 10, followed by the second around June 24, after the Eastern Pacific hurricane season commences on May 15. This year, both of those milestones have passed without any storm formations, leaving forecasters waiting for the first named storm of the season.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a renowned tropical weather expert and meteorologist at Colorado State University, notes that since 1970, only one Eastern Pacific hurricane season experienced a delayed first named storm, which occurred in 2016 when Agatha formed on July 2.
With today marking June 26 and no storm yet formed, 2023 is expected to become the second year since 1970 with such a slow start to the season, joining the ranks of 2016.
As of Monday, an Eastern Pacific Disturbance labeled as No. 1 is situated several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico, generating a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Although this disturbance currently lacks organization, environmental conditions are generally conducive to its gradual development.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts a tropical depression to form during the middle of this week as the disturbance moves in a west-northwestward direction, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The likelihood of development stands at 30% over the next two days, increasing to 80% over the next seven days. If this system intensifies into a tropical storm, it will be named Adrian.
Simultaneously, an Eastern Pacific Disturbance marked as No. 2 is located a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of Costa Rica. The NHC indicates the possibility of gradual development over the coming days, with a tropical depression potentially forming during the latter half of this week. This disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
The NHC estimates a 10% chance of development over the next two days, rising to 60% over the next seven days. Should it organize sufficiently to become a tropical storm, this system will be named Beatriz.
As the Eastern Pacific hurricane season breaks its silence, residents and authorities along the Mexican coast are urged to stay informed and prepared for potential storm activity. Meteorologists will closely monitor the development of both disturbances, providing regular updates on their progression and impact.
PUERTO VALLARTA (PVDN) - The Eastern Pacific hurricane season has begun with an unexpected calm, as the region has not experienced a single storm formation . . .
