PUERTO VALLARTA (PVDN) – The National Water Commission (Conagua) issued a warning on Wednesday, July 5, about a low-pressure area with a 60% likelihood of developing into Tropical Cyclone Calvin within the next two days. The area is currently situated approximately 640 kilometers south of Punta San Telmo, Michoacán.
Additionally, a potential cyclonic area is forming off the Pacific coast of Guerrero and Oaxaca, which could turn into another tropical cyclone within the span of a week. Should conditions for these two phenomena materialize, the western coast of Mexico may witness the passage of two hurricanes within a week.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) stated that the unstable zone off the Mexican Pacific coast coincides with Tropical Wave number 9, which could potentially evolve into Tropical Storm Calvin. Current forecasts suggest that by Friday, July 7, or Saturday, July 8, Calvin could elevate to a Category 1 hurricane.
However, Calvin seems unlikely to pose a significant threat to Mexico. The U.S. National Hurricane Center confirms the high likelihood of Calvin transforming into a hurricane, but it is expected to follow a west-northwest trajectory, taking it away from the Mexican coast.
If the low-pressure zone near Oaxaca and Guerrero, in association with Tropical Wave number 10, morphs into Tropical Storm Dora, it is predicted to follow a similar west-northwest direction to Calvin.
Although both systems are expected to cause heavy rainfall across Mexico, the SMN estimates that the second phenomenon could reach its full cyclonic potential around July 12.
Regions likely to experience the most significant rainfall over the next five to seven days include Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Chiapas, Nayarit, Sinaloa, Durango, Tabasco, Colima, Zacatecas, and central Mexico.
The SMN cautioned that these intense rainfalls could lead to electrical discharges, strong wind gusts, and hailstorms. They may also trigger landslides and an increase in river and stream levels, leading to potential overflows and flooding in low-lying areas of the states mentioned.
As Mexico grapples with the unprecedented heatwave and now potential cyclones, it underlines the need for continued vigilance, robust planning, and effective response strategies. Residents are urged to stay informed and follow the guidance of local authorities.
