Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, October 13, 2026 — A new Pacific depression formed Tuesday and is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane by Friday, giving Puerto Vallarta another storm to monitor.
The National Hurricane Center’s first advisory placed Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E about 870 kilometers south-southeast of Acapulco at 9 a.m. Tuesday. It had sustained winds of 55 km/h and was moving northwest at 17 km/h. No coastal watches or warnings had been issued for this system.
For residents getting back to daily routines after Simon, the question is how soon this developing storm could become a problem for Puerto Vallarta.
The first local risk estimate puts the coming weekend on the calendar. In its wind-speed probability forecast, the NHC calculated a 17% chance of sustained tropical-storm-force winds reaching Puerto Vallarta through 6 a.m. Sunday, October 18. Those winds begin at approximately 63 km/h.
Most of that initial probability falls between Saturday morning and Sunday morning. The forecast also gives Vallarta a 3% chance of sustained winds reaching approximately 93 km/h during the five-day period.
These are probabilities of wind conditions at Puerto Vallarta, rather than the odds of a direct landfall. Their Sunday cutoff also means they don’t describe the storm’s full potential impact next week.
The cyclone itself is expected to strengthen much sooner. The NHC’s forecast of positions and maximum winds projects sustained winds near 210 km/h Friday morning and 225 km/h Saturday morning, both Category 4 intensity. It then shows some weakening to approximately 195 km/h Sunday morning.
Those figures describe the cyclone’s strongest sustained winds. They do not predict that Puerto Vallarta will experience winds of that strength.
Forecasters are more confident the storm will become powerful than about where it will go. Their Tuesday morning forecast discussion describes ocean and atmospheric conditions as extremely favorable for strengthening over the next three to four days.
“Confidence in the track forecast is low, especially beyond day 3,” NHC forecaster Andrew Hagen wrote.
That uncertainty has a local connection: Simon could influence the new cyclone’s movement. The NHC expects Twenty-One-E to slow after its first two days as it encounters weaker steering currents between a ridge to the north and Simon to the northwest. Uncertainty about Simon’s own track contributes to the spread in forecasts for the new system.
Some computer-model scenarios bring the developing hurricane ashore in southwestern or west-central Mexico. The NHC says it could be very close to the Mexican coast over the weekend, although its first forecast does not establish a Puerto Vallarta landfall.
Meteorologist Ryan Maue’s Monday forecast also flagged the disturbance’s potential to become a major hurricane and follow a course similar to Simon’s over seven to 10 days. The system would be named Trudy once it reached tropical-storm strength.
For Vallarta, the forecast arrives as restrictions ease. As Vallarta Daily reported Monday, Jalisco Civil Protection Director Sergio Ramírez López said coastal businesses, public transport, and services could resume gradually as Simon moved away.
That recovery offers residents time to review supplies before another possible disruption. SEAPAL issued its recent request for households to store at least 72 hours of supplies ahead of Simon. For example, a household that used part of that reserve can replenish it while the new storm is still distant.
The next complete NHC advisory is scheduled for 3 p.m. Tuesday, Puerto Vallarta time, and will provide the next official update on the cyclone’s strength and projected weekend approach.
