A local report claimed Los Cabos “overtook” Cancún on international arrivals in 2025. That’s a bold statement—so we pulled the operator numbers and sector research to see what’s really happening. The short version: Los Cabos is gaining ground while Cancún’s foreign traffic has dipped, and the new Tulum airport is changing the map. But does Los Cabos actually surpass Cancún in international passengers? The answer is more nuanced than a headline. Here’s the verified picture—and what it says about Mexico’s tourism shifts this year.

Los Cabos international arrivals

A Baja California Sur outlet reported that Los Cabos “positioned itself above Cancún” in international arrivals so far in 2025, citing university research. The piece reflects a real trend—Los Cabos continues to grow its foreign market—but the claim of overtaking Cancún needs context and verification.

Cancún remains Mexico’s largest international gateway by a wide margin. Operator data for January–August 2025 shows 13.78 million international passengers at Cancún (CUN). That’s down 4.5% year-over-year, but still several times larger than Los Cabos’ foreign volume.

What the numbers actually show

Independent local and trade coverage of the same university research confirms the drop at Cancún—roughly 649,000 fewer international passengers through August, a 4.5% decline versus 2024. Those stories also note that Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta have held or grown their foreign traffic this year. But none of them indicate that Los Cabos surpasses Cancún in absolute international passenger numbers.

Los Cabos’ own indicators back that up: the destination’s Observatorio Turístico (FITURCA) shows the airport’s mix skewing international—about 59% international—with international passengers up slightly year to date through mid-summer. That signals resilience and shares gains, not a takeover.

Tulum’s role and the regional reshuffle

Why is Cancún down while Los Cabos edges up? Several analysts and broker notes have pointed to capacity reallocation across the southeast after the Tulum (TQO) airport opened, adding lift and siphoning some traffic from both Cancún and Cozumel. The trend has shown up in recent investor briefs and operator summaries, which highlight a slight Mexico-segment decline for ASUR alongside growth elsewhere in its network.

GAP—the operator of Los Cabos (SJD)—also reports steady growth at its Mexican airports, with Los Cabos up modestly in August compared with last year. The signal is consistent: Los Cabos continues to draw a loyal U.S. and Canadian market, adding flights and holding load factors even as some rivals cool.

Bottom line for 2025 so far

The claim that Los Cabos ‘overtook’ Cancún on international arrivals doesn’t square with operator totals. Cancún still leads the country by several multiples in foreign passengers, despite an apparent year-to-date decline. At the same time, Los Cabos is gaining ground, helped by a high international mix, strong North American demand, and new capacity patterns in the southeast. In other words: the hierarchy hasn’t flipped—but the gap has narrowed slightly, and the momentum lines diverged.

Why it matters to travelers and the industry

For travelers, the shift could mean more availability and competitive fares into Los Cabos during peak windows as airlines protect capacity there. For Quintana Roo, the policy and planning question is how to balance the Cancún–Tulum corridor, ground transport, and visitor experience so the region keeps its international pull while easing the strain on a single hub. And for destinations like Puerto Vallarta and Los Cabos, the task is to sustain quality as growth continues.