In the first month of 2026, Mexico counted more than 1,500 organized crime-related killings, according to newly released data. The number marks a significant drop from January 2025 – a point officials highlight as a sign of progress – yet the daily toll of violence remains alarmingly high. Which regions are driving these grim statistics, and what does the trend mean for the country’s security? Experts and authorities weigh in on the complex picture of Mexico’s evolving fight against organized crime.
Mexico recorded 1,518 murders linked to organized crime in January 2026, according to preliminary figures from the National Public Security System (SESNSP). This tally is roughly 25% lower than in January of the previous year, when just over 2,000 such killings took place. Security officials have touted the year-over-year decline as evidence that anti-crime strategies are gaining traction. However, January’s total was virtually unchanged from the violence seen in December 2025, suggesting that recent progress may be leveling off. About 1,546 organized-crime murders were registered in December, meaning January saw only a very slight improvement. In absolute terms, the country is still experiencing an extraordinarily high level of lethal violence.
Deadly attacks continued on a daily basis throughout the month. Government data show that the least violent day of January — Friday, January 16 — still saw 33 murders tied to criminal groups. In contrast, the bloodiest day was Sunday, January 25, with 63 such killings in 24 hours. Weekends were particularly brutal. One late-January weekend recorded 161 murders over a Friday-to-Sunday span, making it the most violent weekend of the month. Even the calmest weekend (in mid-January) tallied 130 murders. These numbers underscore the grim reality that dozens of lives are still being lost to organized crime across Mexico nearly every single day.
Violence Concentrated in Hotspot States
As in previous years, the bloodshed remains concentrated in a handful of regions. Guanajuato, a central state long plagued by cartel turf wars, recorded the highest death toll in January with 127 organized crime-related murders. This grim distinction is not new for Guanajuato; much of its violence stems from a fierce conflict between major criminal groups, including the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and the local Santa Rosa de Lima Cartel. The State of México — the populous region encircling Mexico City — saw the second-highest figure, with 123 such killings last month.
Several other states also suffered high levels of cartel-related violence. In the northwest, Sinaloa (historical stronghold of the Sinaloa Cartel) tallied 94 murders linked to organized crime in January. Chihuahua, which borders Texas and New Mexico, registered 93, as did Baja California on the U.S. border. Jalisco in western Mexico reported 91 killings, and Michoacán in the southwest had 89. These figures reflect ongoing battles among organized crime factions in those areas and show that the security gains have been uneven across the map.
By contrast, some parts of the country remain relatively peaceful. Yucatán, famed for being one of Mexico’s safest states, recorded only four murders tied to organized crime in January. Durango, a sparsely populated northern state, saw just three. Likewise, Baja California Sur (at the southern end of the Baja peninsula), Campeche, and Querétaro each had only two cases for the month, while Aguascalientes reported a single murder. Such low numbers highlight the stark regional disparities: certain states — often with smaller populations or less strategic interest to drug traffickers — experience only isolated incidents of violence compared to the hotspots.
Security Strategy and Ongoing Challenges
Federal authorities have hailed the overall decline in homicides as a validation of their security strategy. President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration emphasizes that closer coordination between federal forces, state authorities, and the military has helped curb violence. At a press conference in early January, officials noted that December 2025 had the lowest number of homicides of any December in the past decade. Preliminary data also showed that the homicide rate for full-year 2025 fell to around 17.5 per 100,000 inhabitants — the lowest level Mexico has seen since 2015. The government credits its approach for these improvements, suggesting the country may finally be inching away from the record violence of recent years.
However, many observers urge caution and point out that serious security challenges persist. The overall level of violence remains high by historical standards, and it is still heavily concentrated in certain states where criminal organizations hold sway. Security analysts note that just seven states account for over half of all murders nationwide, led by places like Guanajuato, Sinaloa, and Baja California. The persistence of cartel-driven killing in these regions indicates that powerful gangs continue to operate with relative impunity, limiting the impact of national trends in those locales.
Critics also question whether the apparent reduction in murder numbers tells the whole story. Reports of disappearances have surged, raising fears that some killings are being hidden or undercounted. According to the national registry of missing persons, more than 14,700 people were reported missing in 2025 — a 16% increase over the previous year, and the highest annual figure on record. Many of the missing are likely victims of homicide whose bodies have not been found or classified, human rights groups warn. This means that despite the drop in officially tallied murders, the reality of violence in some communities could be even worse than the numbers suggest.
Opposition leaders, for their part, contend that the government’s celebration of these statistics is premature. They argue that more concrete actions are needed on the ground to protect citizens. Senator Mario Vázquez of the National Action Party (PAN) recently criticized what he sees as a lack of tangible change in hard-hit communities. Mexico, he argued, must strengthen its local police forces and back them with greater resources. “The government must listen to those who face violence every day… Mexico deserves real security, not speeches,” Vázquez said, urging authorities to move beyond rhetoric and deliver lasting improvements in public safety.
As January’s figures show, the fight against organized crime in Mexico is far from over. The notable drop in murders compared to a year ago is encouraging and offers a glimmer of hope that the country may be slowly turning a corner. Yet for the thousands of families and neighborhoods still reeling from bloodshed in recent weeks, the danger remains all too real. Security officials face the challenge of sustaining and deepening the downward trend in violence in the months ahead. Many Mexicans — citizens and expats alike — will be watching closely to see if the new year continues to bring improvements, and whether those statistical gains can finally translate into peace on the streets.
