Mexico City, Mexico, July 7, 2026 — Mexico and the United States traded a record $404.6 billion in goods during the first five months of 2026, confirming Mexico’s place as Washington’s largest trading partner just as the T-MEC enters a more difficult review period.
The figure, drawn from U.S. Census Bureau trade data, combines $242.9 billion in goods the United States imported from Mexico and $161.7 billion in goods it exported to Mexico from January through May. Total goods trade between the two countries was about 13 percent higher than the $359.2 billion recorded in the same period of 2025.
The May data extend a trend already visible in the first quarter, when Mexico reached a record share of U.S. goods trade. The difference now is timing. The new high landed less than a week after Mexico, the United States, and Canada held the first formal six-year review of the trade pact known in Mexico as T-MEC and in the United States as USMCA.
In May alone, Mexico accounted for 16.8 percent of all U.S. goods trade, ahead of Canada at 12.7 percent and China at 6.3 percent, the Census Bureau’s top trading partner table shows.
That gives Mexico a strong headline heading into the next round of negotiations. It also gives Washington the numbers it has been using to press for changes.
The United States ran an $81.2 billion goods deficit with Mexico through May, meaning it bought far more goods from Mexico than it sold to Mexico. But the details are more complicated than the political shorthand. U.S. exports to Mexico grew faster than Mexican exports to the United States compared with the first five months of 2025. U.S. sales to Mexico rose about 15 percent, while U.S. imports from Mexico increased about 11 percent.
The trade relationship is not simply a story of Mexican factories selling into the U.S. market. American suppliers, farmers, energy firms, logistics companies, and manufacturers also depend on Mexico as a buyer. For many cross-border supply chains, a finished product may cross the border after parts, components, and raw materials have already moved in both directions.
On July 1, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said the United States did not agree to renew the USMCA “in its current form.” The USTR statement said the agreement remains in force, but that Washington wants to address what it described as shortcomings in the pact and trade deficits with Mexico and Canada.
That decision does not cancel T-MEC now. It keeps the agreement in effect while the three countries continue discussions, with annual reviews now part of the trade calendar unless the governments agree to extend or modify the pact. PVDN previously reported on the review’s opening and the risks facing Mexico in the July 1 T-MEC process.
The next Mexico-U.S. round is expected to take place the week of July 20 in Mexico City. Reuters reported that talks are expected to focus heavily on industrial rules of origin, especially autos, where the United States has been pushing for stricter North American and U.S. content requirements.
Autos remain the most sensitive part of the review because Mexico’s export model is deeply tied to vehicle assembly and parts manufacturing. A tighter rule could affect factories in northern and central Mexico first, but the consequences would not stop at plant gates. They would move through suppliers, trucking routes, customs operations, industrial parks, and investment decisions.
The record also arrives while Mexico is trying to turn nearshoring from a promise into long-term investment. Strong trade data help the federal government argue that North America’s supply chains are already integrated to a degree that would be difficult to unwind. But companies planning new factories, warehouses, or supplier networks do not make those decisions on trade volumes alone. They also watch whether tariff rules, customs treatment, labor provisions, and auto-content requirements will remain predictable.
