Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – An area of low pressure south of Mexico’s southern coast has a 40% chance of becoming the first named storm of the 2025 Pacific season—Alvin—by mid-week, according to NOAA. Preparations and watches are under review.
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off Mexico’s southern Pacific coast has caught the attention of forecasters at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). As of May 21, 2025, this tropical disturbance carries a “medium” 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days, with the potential to become the season’s first named storm—Alvin—by mid-week.
According to the latest NOAA outlook, environmental conditions ahead of the system are becoming increasingly favorable. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are running above average for late May, while upper-level wind shear—a key factor that can inhibit storm formation—appears moderate enough to allow organized convection to persist and consolidate around a developing center.
“There remains potential for this disturbance to strengthen into a tropical depression by the middle of next week as it continues a general west-northwestward motion at 10 to 15 mph,” NOAA meteorologists stated.
In its 48-hour outlook, the agency assigns the system a nearly negligible chance of development (close to 0%), but confidence grows in the longer-range seven-day forecast, where the formation probability jumps to 40%. If it reaches tropical storm strength, the system will be officially designated Tropical Storm Alvin—marking the inaugural name of the 2025 Pacific Hurricane Season.
Forecast Track and Potential Impacts
Models currently depict the disturbance tracking west-northwestward away from the Mexican coastline. This trajectory would likely keep any direct impacts on coastal communities minimal. However, forecasters caution that even systems well offshore can generate rough surf and dangerous rip currents along Mexico’s Pacific beaches—from Chiapas and Oaxaca to Guerrero and Michoacán.
Local authorities in coastal municipalities are monitoring the situation, readying beach advisories and potential small-craft warnings. Tourism operators, especially around popular destinations like Puerto Escondido and Acapulco, have been advised to keep a close eye on updated NOAA and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) bulletins over the coming days.
Preparedness and Best Practices
Mexico’s National Civil Protection System (SINAPROC) recommends that coastal residents and visitors:
- Monitor official forecasts from NOAA and SMN.
- Follow any beach closures or maritime advisories.
- Secure loose items that could be caught by strong gusts.
- Review evacuation plans if living in flood-prone areas.
Businesses reliant on maritime operations—such as fishing fleets and tour boats—should inspect equipment and ensure communication systems are fully operational. Emergency managers emphasize that early awareness and preparation remain the best defense, even if a system stays offshore.
What to Watch for Next
NOAA will continue issuing routine Tropical Weather Outlooks twice daily (at 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. EDT) until the disturbance either organizes or dissipates. Should the low-pressure area achieve sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, it will be classified as Tropical Storm Alvin, and formal storm watches or warnings could follow.
Residents and stakeholders along the Pacific littoral are encouraged to sign up for local emergency alerts and to consult official channels—particularly NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional—for the latest bulletins and potential watches.
As the 2025 Pacific Hurricane Season officially unfolds, this early disturbance serves as a reminder that preparedness and timely information are paramount. Even if Alvin never coalesces into a named storm, the window for tropical development in the eastern Pacific is open—and each year brings its own challenges for coastal communities and weather-aware travelers alike.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - An area of low pressure south of Mexico’s southern coast has a 40% chance of becoming the first named storm of the 2025 Pacific season—Alvin—by mid-week, according to NOAA. Preparations and watches are under review.
