Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – The Mexican peso regained strength against the dollar on Tuesday, bouncing back after five consecutive days of losses. The local currency closed at 20.3331 per dollar, up from yesterday’s close of 20.4604, representing a gain of 12.73 cents or 0.62 percent, according to official data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico).
The dollar traded within a narrow range during the session, reaching a high of 20.4477 and a low of 20.3321. Meanwhile, the Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, inched up marginally by 0.03 percent to 104.22 points.
Tariff Tensions and Market Expectations
Investors are now positioning themselves ahead of a major announcement expected from U.S. President Donald Trump. In his upcoming Liberation Day address, Trump is set to reveal the details of his reciprocal tariffs, outlining which countries and industries will be affected, as well as the magnitude of the measures.
“The peso’s value reflects that Mexico could be one of the least affected countries,” noted CIBanco. The bank’s analysis suggests that there is optimism among investors that an agreement might be reached to exclude all products covered under the USMCA framework from the new tariffs. Should such an agreement materialize, experts predict that the peso could strengthen further to levels below 20 pesos per dollar. Conversely, if Mexico fails to secure major concessions and opts for retaliatory measures, the peso could depreciate, potentially reaching 21.0 pesos per dollar.
Diplomatic Moves: Strengthening Ties with Canada
In a related development, the office of Canada’s newly appointed Prime Minister, Mark Carney, confirmed that the premier engaged in discussions with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. The conversation centered on a coordinated response to U.S. trade actions, highlighting the growing closeness between Mexico and Canada in the face of external pressures.
President Sheinbaum Pardo indicated that Mexico’s official response to the U.S. tariffs will be announced on Thursday, April 3, if President Trump confirms the imposition of the measures. The Mexican president also expressed her willingness to cooperate with the United States on critical bilateral issues, including the extradition of alleged drug traffickers.
Domestic Economic Outlook
Market participants are also eagerly awaiting the release of the 2026 preliminary economic policy criteria. The document, scheduled for publication later today, is expected to provide key insights into government estimates for several macroeconomic indicators, offering further guidance to investors amidst the ongoing trade uncertainties.
As global markets react to the evolving trade landscape, all eyes remain on tomorrow’s tariff announcement, which could significantly influence Mexico’s economic trajectory and the peso’s performance in the coming weeks.
