The Mexican peso rises on Fed rate cut hopes after Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s comments and a weaker dollar, closing at 18.7312 per dollar, though weekly losses linger.
The Mexican peso picked up ground against the US dollar on Friday, July 18, 2025, as traders reacted to remarks by a Federal Reserve official favoring an interest rate cut. The peso closed at 18.7312 per dollar, up 2.57 cents or 0.14 percent from Thursday’s 18.7569, according to Bank of Mexico data.
Trading ranged between a low of 18.6916 and a high of 18.7685, reflecting modest swings as markets weighed domestic and international cues. At the same time, the ICE Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.17 percent to 98.48 points.
Peso rises on Fed rate cut hopes
Fed Governor Christopher Waller outlined an argument for cutting benchmark interest rates at the Fed’s upcoming meeting. He pointed to signs of weakness in the US labor market and said that tariff-driven inflation no longer poses a serious threat. “The private sector isn’t performing as well as everyone thinks,” Waller told reporters, adding that much of recent job growth came from the public sector.
A report from Banco Base noted that Waller’s comments helped knock the dollar lower. In its daily bulletin, the firm wrote that traders are now more open to the idea of rate relief sooner than expected.
Weekly Peso performance still in the red
Even with Friday’s gain, the peso ended the week weaker versus the dollar. On Friday, July 11, 2025, the exchange rate closed at 18.6444 per dollar. By week’s end, that translated into a cumulative loss of 8.68 cents, or 0.47 percent.
Banorte analysts say the peso remains stuck in a trading range, with 18.60 pesos per dollar as an important support level. If that level holds, the peso could stabilize in the days ahead. If it breaks below, sellers may push it toward test levels around 18.70.
Local markets await fresh data on Mexico’s inflation and retail sales next week. A cooler US dollar could help the peso regain momentum, but mixed signals on global growth and tighter US monetary policy keep investors cautious.
As of July 18, 2025, the peso’s slight rebound offers relief, but its weekly slide shows the tug-of-war between global trends and local fundamentals. Traders will look to both domestic economic reports and Fed decisions for clues on where Mexico’s currency heads next.
Mexican peso, Federal Reserve, interest rates, currency markets, Bank of Mexico
