The Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC) at the Universidad Anáhuac Cancún has raised concerns about a challenging close to 2024 for Mexico’s tourism industry. The center predicts a reduction in available airplane seats and a decline in international and domestic flights, particularly affecting the country’s top beach destinations, including Cancún, Los Cabos, and Puerto Vallarta.
According to STARC, from September to December 2024, only 3.4 million seats will be available for flights from the United States to Mexico, representing a significant 7.3% decrease compared to the same period in 2023. This reduction will also affect the number of flights, with a total of 19,289 planned, a decrease of 6.5% from last year. The U.S. remains the primary source of international tourists to Mexico, and this drop in flight availability is likely to impact tourist arrivals significantly.
The domestic market is also facing similar challenges. For the last quarter of 2024, 25.2 million seats will be offered for domestic flights, a 3.5% reduction from the same period last year. The number of flights within Mexico is expected to decrease by 5.8%.
A Declining Trend in Key Beach Destinations
STARC director Francisco Madrid highlighted that this downward trend is particularly concerning, given that Mexico’s leading tourist destinations have already seen a significant slowdown in international air travel from March to July 2024.
Cancún, which is typically a hotspot for U.S. travelers, experienced a sharp contraction in passenger numbers, with a 6.3% decrease, translating to 445,524 fewer tourists compared to the same period in 2023. Los Cabos, another popular destination, saw a 3.5% drop, equating to 57,000 fewer travelers.
Puerto Vallarta, however, has been less affected, with a modest 1.1% decline, or 12,100 fewer international visitors. While this decrease is relatively small, it is part of a broader trend of reduced air travel to Mexico’s beach destinations.
Factors Behind the Slowdown
STARC attributes this tourism slowdown to a combination of factors, including the lack of tourism promotion, ongoing concerns about security and Mexico’s international image, and “destination fatigue” as tourists increasingly explore alternative locations. Global competition for international travelers has intensified, and Mexico’s reliance on the U.S. market is becoming more apparent, with fewer American tourists choosing Mexico as their preferred destination.
For instance, from January to June 2024, international trips by U.S. citizens grew by 10% compared to the same period in 2023. However, these travelers are opting for destinations outside of Mexico, particularly Europe, which is emerging as a popular alternative.
Mexican Destinations Losing Appeal Among U.S. Travelers
Data from STARC reveals a significant drop in Mexico’s appeal among U.S. tourists. In the early months of 2024, U.S. travelers showed a preference for Mexican destinations, with 25.7% choosing the country in January and 23.1% in February. However, by June and July, this figure had fallen sharply to 15.9% and 16.6%, respectively.
The drop in interest from the U.S. market is concerning, given Mexico’s historic reliance on American tourists. In 2019, the U.S. accounted for 58.4% of all international visitors to Mexico. This percentage surged during the pandemic years, reaching 68.5% in 2020 and peaking at 76.2% in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, the figures moderated slightly to 66.9% and 65.4%, respectively, and for the first half of 2024, the share stood at 65.5%.
Mexico’s dependency on U.S. tourism remains high, making the decline in interest particularly worrisome. The country is also losing travelers from other key markets, such as Europe and South America.
Future Challenges for Mexican Tourism
As the year draws to a close, STARC warns that Mexico’s tourism industry faces significant challenges ahead of the 2024-2025 winter season. The most pressing concerns include the ongoing shortage of airline seats, both internationally and domestically, and the lack of tourism promotion. In addition, there is growing uncertainty surrounding judicial reforms in Mexico, which could further affect the country’s appeal as a tourist destination.
With global competition for tourists increasing and Mexico’s key markets showing signs of decline, the tourism sector may need to adapt its strategies quickly. Addressing issues related to safety, promotion, and air connectivity will be critical in ensuring that Mexico remains a top destination for international travelers.
As tourism is a vital component of Mexico’s economy, these declines underscore the need for proactive measures to bolster the sector and regain the interest of global visitors.
The Sustainable Tourism Advanced Research Center (STARC) at the Universidad Anáhuac Cancún has raised concerns about a challenging close to 2024 for Mexico's tourism industry. The center predicts a reduction in available airplane seats and a decline in international and domestic flights, particularly affecting the country's top beach destinations, including Cancún, Los Cabos, and Puerto Vallarta.
