Los Cabos hotels are preparing for a slower May, with occupancy expected to sit below the stronger periods seen last year. The forecast comes as airport traffic has also softened, adding pressure to a destination that depends heavily on air arrivals. Industry leaders say May is usually a moderate month, but the current pattern began earlier in the spring. The coming weeks may show whether this is a normal seasonal pause or a wider tourism slowdown.

Hotel occupancy expected to dip in May

Los Cabos hotels expect occupancy of around 65% to 66% in May, as the destination reports fewer visitors and softer reservations than last year.

Hotel leaders say May usually has occupancy between 65% and 69%. That means the forecast is still within the normal range for the month. The concern is the direction of the trend.

April closed about four percentage points below 2025. The softer pattern began showing in March and could continue into the summer season.

Airport traffic adds to the slowdown

Airport data also points to weaker demand. Los Cabos airport handled 641,000 terminal passengers in April 2026, down 8.1% from April 2025.

The decline was sharper among international passengers. International traffic fell 9.7% in April, while domestic traffic dropped 5.4%.

Through the first four months of 2026, total passenger traffic at Los Cabos airport was down 3.9% from the same period last year. Domestic traffic fell 5.9%, while international traffic was down 2.9%.

That matters because Los Cabos relies heavily on air arrivals. Fewer passengers can quickly affect hotels, restaurants, taxis, tour operators, and workers tied to visitor spending.

A softer season, not a collapse

The numbers do not suggest a collapse in Los Cabos tourism. They show a destination moving through a softer period after several strong years.

Recent tourism indicators show a mixed picture. In January, total passenger arrivals were almost flat, down 0.3% from the year before. Domestic arrivals dropped 5.6%, while international arrivals rose 2.6%.

Hotel occupancy in January stood at 74%, unchanged from a year earlier. That shows the year did not begin with broad weakness across every measure.

Los Cabos also ended 2025 with strong long-term tourism figures. The destination welcomed nearly 3.8 million visitors, maintained an average annual hotel occupancy rate of 70%, and had more than 22,000 hotel rooms.

International factors remain a concern

Tourism representatives have pointed to wider international factors behind the slowdown. These include travel uncertainty, economic pressure on households, perceptions of security around Mexico, and competition from other destinations.

For many travelers, a vacation decision now depends on more than hotel rates. Flight prices, exchange rates, perceptions of safety, and household budgets can all shape bookings.

Los Cabos also competes with other beach destinations in Mexico, the Caribbean, and the United States. When advance reservations soften, hotels often feel the change before the wider economy does.

May will be an important month for the local tourism sector. If bookings stabilize, the slowdown may look more like a seasonal adjustment. If the trend carries into summer, hotels and tourism businesses may face a longer period of lower demand.