Perceptions of insecurity rose over the past year in La Paz and Los Cabos, according to the latest ENSU survey from Mexico’s national statistics agency.
The numbers do not place either city above the national urban average. That is an important point. But the annual shift shows a clear change in residents’ perceptions of daily safety in two of Baja California Sur’s most important urban areas.
In La Paz, 46.6% of adults surveyed in March 2026 said they considered living in the city unsafe. In March 2025, the figure was 27.8%. That means the capital saw a sharp annual increase in perception of insecurity.
In Los Cabos, the figure rose from 24.7% in March 2025 to 34.7% in March 2026. The survey area includes the urban zones of San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas.
Nationally, 61.5% of adults in the surveyed urban areas said they considered their city unsafe. La Paz and Los Cabos remain well below that level, but the year-over-year increase gives local officials less room to treat the issue as distant or abstract.
The trend is more complicated than one headline
The quarterly comparison tells a more mixed story. La Paz was almost unchanged from December 2025, moving from 46.4% to 46.6%. Los Cabos improved from 39.0% in December to 34.7% in March.
That means the latest quarter did not show a sudden local collapse. The larger story is the annual change. Both cities were coming from lower levels of perceived insecurity one year ago, especially Los Cabos.
This matters because public perception is not the same as the crime rate. People may feel less safe due to robberies, violence, neighborhood disputes, poor lighting, traffic, social media, or visible strain on public services.
Still, perception is not meaningless. It affects how residents move around, how they use public spaces, and how much confidence they have in local authorities.
What ENSU actually measures
The National Urban Public Security Survey, known as ENSU, asks adults how safe they feel living in their city. It also measures changes in habits, conflicts with others, exposure to antisocial behavior, and views of government performance.
For international residents, this distinction matters. ENSU is not a tourist safety report. It is not a direct count of crimes. It is a survey of how residents experience and judge their own city.
That makes it useful in places like Los Cabos and La Paz, where the public image can differ from daily life. A resort corridor can feel controlled and secure, while nearby neighborhoods may face different conditions.
The survey captures that broader civic mood. It helps show whether residents feel the city is being managed well, not only whether crimes are being investigated.
Growth is part of the local context
The numbers also fit into a larger story in Baja California Sur. Los Cabos has grown quickly, driven by tourism, migration, housing demand, and service-sector jobs.
In 2020, Los Cabos had more than 351,000 residents. That was a 47.2% increase from 2010. Growth at that pace can strain roads, water systems, policing, housing, schools, and emergency services.
For residents, public safety often blends with those everyday pressures. A dark street, a long water outage, a road blockade, or a burglary nearby can all feed the same feeling that a city is under strain.
That does not mean growth automatically causes crime. It means growth can expose weaknesses in planning and public services. When those weaknesses are visible, people may feel less protected.
Public services shape how safe people feel
The ENSU results also show why insecurity is not only a police issue. Across Mexico’s surveyed urban areas, residents identified potholes, water supply failures, poor lighting, traffic, and crime as major local problems.
Those issues are connected in daily life. Insufficient public lighting can make a neighborhood feel less safe. Poor streets can slow emergency response. Water shortages can deepen frustration with local government.
Los Cabos stood out in one national comparison. Only 16.3% of adults surveyed there said their city government was very or somewhat effective at solving the most important problems.
That figure matters because trust is part of safety. When people do not believe local government can solve basic problems, they are more likely to view other risks through that same lens.
Crime data adds another layer
Reported crime data gives more context, but it should be read carefully. Complaint figures depend on whether people report crimes and whether authorities open cases.
In Baja California Sur, robbery remains one of the crimes residents notice most in daily life. During the first quarter of 2026, official crime data cited in local reporting showed more than 1,000 robbery investigation files statewide.
Los Cabos and La Paz accounted for much of that activity. In Los Cabos, business robbery cases rose in the first quarter when compared with the same period of 2025. Robbery against pedestrians also showed a smaller increase.
That does not mean every crime category is moving in the same direction. It shows why public concern can rise even when a city remains below the national average on perceived insecurity.
What this means for foreign residents
For foreign residents, the latest figures should be read with a degree of balance. The data does not support panic. It also does not support ignoring local concerns.
La Paz and Los Cabos still compare better than many Mexican urban areas in perceived insecurity. But both cities have lost some of the comfort they had a year ago.
The practical takeaway is to follow local conditions, not only national averages or resort marketing. Safety can vary by neighborhood, time of day, road access, lighting, and routine.
Residents should maintain normal precautions, report crimes when possible, and pay attention to local updates. For communities with many international residents, better public communication in English and Spanish would also help reduce confusion during security or service disruptions.
The larger issue is confidence
The central issue is not only whether La Paz and Los Cabos are unsafe. The data shows they remain below Mexico’s urban average. The sharper question is why more residents now feel less secure than they did a year ago.
That answer likely includes several pieces. Crime trends matter. So do water shortages, public lighting, road pressure, neighborhood disputes, police staffing, and confidence in local government.
For Los Cabos, the challenge is especially tied to growth. A destination can continue to attract visitors while residents feel that basic services are falling behind.
For La Paz, the concern is different but still serious. The city’s rise in perceived insecurity over one year suggests a shift in public mood that authorities cannot dismiss.
Both cities still have a stronger sense of safety than much of urban Mexico. But the trend line is now part of the story.
