At the U.S.-Mexico border, the mix of drugs being caught is shifting again. A review of U.S. Customs and Border Protection seizure totals suggests that several categories fell during the first stretch of Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency, including one that has dominated U.S. politics for years. But one major drug moved in the opposite direction, raising a different set of questions about routes, enforcement, and what traffickers are prioritizing now. The numbers look straightforward. The story behind them isn’t.
What the border numbers show
Fourteen months into Claudia Sheinbaum’s presidency, one set of figures is increasingly being used as a quick scorecard on security and bilateral pressure: U.S. border drug seizures.
Using U.S. Customs and Border Protection totals for drugs intercepted at and around the U.S.-Mexico boundary, the overall weight of major drugs seized during the first 14 months of Sheinbaum’s term was lower than the 14 months immediately before it. The decline is not uniform across substances, and it is not huge when everything is lumped together. But in several categories, the drops are sharp enough to jump off the page.
Across the main drugs tracked in the data, the combined total fell about 4.3% in the comparison, to roughly 146.1 metric tons over Sheinbaum’s first 14 months. In other words, this is not a story of the border suddenly going “dry.” It is a story about a rebalancing, where some flows appear to be shrinking while others are holding steady or rising.
That distinction matters, because the political conversation often treats “drug flow” as a single tap that can be tightened or loosened. The numbers suggest something messier: pressure in one area can coincide with movement in another, and the category doing the moving may not be the one dominating headlines.
Fentanyl drops, cocaine rises
The most politically consequential shift is fentanyl. In the 14-month window reviewed, fentanyl seizures fell by roughly 42.5%, from about 11 metric tons in the prior period to about 6.3 metric tons during Sheinbaum’s first 14 months. Even allowing for the limits of seizure data, that is the kind of change that U.S. officials notice, because fentanyl has been at the center of U.S. overdose deaths and of Washington’s demands for tougher action against synthetic drugs and precursor chemicals.
Marijuana also declined in a meaningful way, down about 28.4% to roughly 22.8 metric tons in the period examined. Another category—prescription medications and chemical precursors—fell by about 35%, reinforcing the idea that at least some trafficking activity is facing more friction.
Methamphetamine, by contrast, looks close to flat. The total rose modestly in the 14-month comparison, up around 3% to about 84.6 metric tons. That’s a reminder that even when attention is fixed on fentanyl, other high-volume drugs continue to move, and they can remain stubbornly resilient.
Then there is cocaine, the outlier in the opposite direction. Cocaine seizures increased by roughly 38.6% in the 14-month window, rising to about 22.5 metric tons. That doesn’t automatically mean more cocaine is being produced or consumed, but it does suggest the cocaine pipeline into the United States remains strong—and may even be benefiting from shifts in routes, priorities, or enforcement focus.
Why seizures are a tricky yardstick
Seizure totals are tempting because they feel concrete. They come in pounds, kilograms, and neatly labeled categories. But they are a proxy, not a direct measurement of how much drug product actually enters the U.S. market.
A rise in seizures can mean more smuggling attempts, better detection, more inspections, or smarter targeting. A drop can mean fewer attempts, or it can mean smugglers adapting—changing concealment methods, switching corridors, or routing product through different borders, ports, or modes of transport. It can also reflect operational changes on the U.S. side, such as staffing, technology deployment, or where enforcement is concentrated at a given moment.
The location of seizures adds another layer. Most “hard” drugs are intercepted at official ports of entry, hidden in passenger vehicles or commercial shipments, not carried on foot through remote desert. Cannabis is the exception: it has historically been seized in much higher volumes between ports, where Border Patrol operates. That pattern matters when interpreting trends, because a policy change that increases cargo inspections at a busy port could raise seizures even if trafficking volume stays constant. Meanwhile, a change in enforcement posture between ports could affect marijuana numbers more than fentanyl numbers.
There is also a broader reality that expats in Mexico often feel firsthand: these cross-border debates shape real-world consequences. When U.S. politics heats up around drugs, the pressure doesn’t stay rhetorical. It can translate into tougher scrutiny of northbound traffic, more aggressive policing demands, and heightened tension in the relationship—sometimes with spillover effects for trade flows, border wait times, and the overall climate of U.S.-Mexico cooperation.
What to watch next
If fentanyl seizures continue trending downward while cocaine continues rising, the next phase of the story won’t be just about totals. It will be about substitution and strategy—what criminal networks prioritize when one product becomes riskier, and how enforcement agencies respond when the “headline drug” and the “volume drug” aren’t the same.
It will also be about whether the decline in fentanyl seizures aligns with other indicators in the United States, including overdose mortality and drug purity trends—signals that are slower to move but more directly tied to harm. A drop in seizures, on its own, is not proof of reduced deaths. But it is one of the few public, regularly updated data streams that both governments—and the public—can point to when making claims about momentum.
For Sheinbaum, the political stakes are obvious. Washington is watching fentanyl more than anything else, and any sustained decline gives her government room to argue that its approach is working, even as it faces persistent violence at home and a trafficking landscape that doesn’t stand still. For everyone living in Mexico who has to navigate the practical realities of cross-border life, the message is simpler: the numbers may be improving in one place, but the system is still adapting—and the next shift may already be underway.
