Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – Conagua reports an 90 % chance for the first hurricane of the season to form south of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Oaxaca next week, prompting heavy rain forecasts and safety alerts.
The National Water Commission (Conagua) raised the alarm on Saturday when it reported that the potential for the formation of the first hurricane of the season in the Pacific Ocean has climbed to 90 %. In its latest outlook, Conagua’s Hydrometeorological Forecast Center highlighted a cluster of thunderstorms spinning over unusually warm sea surface temperatures, creating prime conditions for rapid intensification. With hurricane season officially underway since mid-May, coastal communities are bracing for what could be the strongest storm to develop this early in years.
Conagua’s report warns that the disturbance has a high probability of organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. By early next week, meteorologists expect the system to consolidate into a tropical cyclone axis located south of the Guerrero, Michoacán, and Oaxaca coastlines. Satellite imagery shows concentrated convection roughly 250 kilometers offshore, but model guidance indicates a west-northwest track that could bring bands of heavy rain onshore by Wednesday or Thursday.
In Guerrero, authorities have already issued alerts for showers accompanied by heavy rainfall, mountain-top lightning, and isolated hail. State civil protection agencies in Acapulco, Costa Grande, Tierra Caliente, Costa Chica, Centro, Norte, and La Montaña regions are coordinating with municipal emergency services to prepare shelters, clear drainage channels, and ready search-and-rescue teams. Officials urge residents in low-lying areas to secure loose outdoor items and review family evacuation plans in case of flash floods or landslides.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs officially from May 15 through November 30. Conagua experts point out that early-season storms can gain strength quickly when ocean temperatures exceed 28 °C and vertical wind shear remains low. This year’s elevated sea surface temperatures—up to half a degree above the 30-year average—have spurred concerns that the first hurricane of the season may reach category 2 or higher before weakening near the cooler waters off Baja California.
Local governments in Michoacán and Oaxaca have activated their coastal alert protocols. Ports in Lázaro Cárdenas (Michoacán) and Salina Cruz (Oaxaca) announced temporary closures for small-craft operations, and fishermen were advised to stay in port until the system passes. Tourism operators along the Costa Chica are monitoring developments closely; beach closures and hotel safety advisories could affect holiday plans for domestic and international visitors.
In Acapulco, Mayor Luis Murillo noted that municipal teams have prepositioned sandbags and arranged for rapid-response engineering crews to address possible road washouts. “Our priority is to keep people safe and maintain clear access to emergency routes,” he said. Local hospitals and health centers are also on standby to treat injuries related to flooding or fallen debris.
Experts caution that the storm’s rain bands could extend hundreds of kilometers inland, threatening agriculture in Guerrero’s coffee-growing highlands and sugarcane fields in Michoacán’s coastal plain. Farmers have been advised to reinforce greenhouse structures and protect vulnerable crops. Conagua will issue daily bulletins at 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., and users can track updates via its website and social-media channels.
Climate scientists link the spike in early-season activity to a warming trend in the tropical Pacific. Dr. Carmen Reyes, a researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that “warmer waters fuel more energetic storms, and we’re already seeing patterns that resemble those of an active year.” While long-range forecasts remain uncertain, the heightened risk this week underscores the need for readiness across all levels of government and the public.
Residents from the beaches of Zihuatanejo to the mountain villages of La Montaña should heed official warnings and avoid river crossings after heavy downpours. As Conagua refines its forecast over the coming days, emergency services will update readiness levels and shelter availability. With the potential for the first hurricane of the season now at 90 %, early action could mean the difference between minor damage and a major disaster.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - Conagua reports an 90 % chance for the first hurricane of the season to form south of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Oaxaca next . . .
