BBVA has turned more optimistic on Mexico for 2026, and that shift matters because growth forecasts often shape how businesses hire, lend, and invest. The bank now sees a stronger year after a soft 2025, helped by better domestic momentum and a larger investment push. That sounds encouraging, but it does not settle the bigger question. Can stronger projections overcome stubborn inflation, lingering uncertainty, and the slow pace at which better headline numbers usually reach households, small businesses, and local economies?
A forecast reset after a weak 2025
BBVA has raised its 2026 forecast for Mexico’s economy to 1.8%. That matters less as a headline than as a change in direction. In December, the bank still expected 1.2% growth for 2026. Now it sees a clearer rebound, with 2025 closing at 0.8% growth, according to INEGI. That does not signal a boom. But it does move BBVA to the more optimistic side of the current debate. Banxico is projecting 1.6% growth for 2026, while the OECD sees 1.4%. In other words, BBVA is saying the economy may do better than many expected a few months ago. It is still pointing to moderate expansion, not a surge. For readers in Mexico, that distinction matters. Forecasts like this can shape how banks lend, how companies plan hiring, and how much confidence businesses have to expand. They also influence expectations around consumer demand, investment, and the pace of recovery after a slower year.
What BBVA believes will lift growth
The bank’s case for a better 2026 rests on a few connected ideas. First, the weak base from 2025 makes improvement easier to show. Second, private consumption and investment are both expected to recover. In BBVA’s latest presentation, private consumption is projected to grow 1.8% this year. Investment is projected to grow 2.0% after a sharp drop in 2025. That matters because last year’s softness was tied closely to weaker investment activity. BBVA had already warned in late 2025 that both public and private investment were falling. Now the bank sees a better backdrop for projects, financing, and business activity. That outlook also fits with the government’s broader Plan México push. The administration has outlined a 5.6 trillion peso public and mixed investment plan through 2030. It has also set aside 722 billion pesos for 2026 infrastructure and related projects. Plan México’s goals also include lifting investment above 25% of GDP and creating 1.5 million jobs in strategic sectors. Those targets help explain why some forecasters are turning less cautious.
Why the outlook is better but still fragile
Still, a better forecast is not the same thing as a clean runway. Inflation remains a live issue. INEGI reported annual inflation at 4.02% in February, above the midpoint of Banxico’s target range. That can limit how quickly lower interest rates reach households and businesses. Banxico has also said investment may stay weak until at least the second half of 2026. Uncertainty around the U.S. trade relationship and the coming T-MEC review also hangs over the outlook. So BBVA’s new number should be read as a reset in expectations. It is not proof that the economy is suddenly out of the woods. The country has moved from a very soft 2025 toward a more constructive 2026 story. But whether that improvement is widely felt will depend on prices, financing conditions, project execution, and private sector confidence. For many residents, the real test will be simple. Do better forecasts turn into more work, steadier business, and less pressure on household budgets?
With information from BBVA México Strategic Talk deck, March 10, 2026
