The death of El Mencho raised a major question for Mexico’s security outlook: would CJNG weaken, split, or keep operating? A new analysis suggests the answer is more complicated than many expected. Despite the capture of El Jardinero, one of the cartel’s senior figures, analysts say CJNG’s money networks, armed capacity, and territorial alliances remain largely intact. That does not mean the group is stable forever, but it does suggest Mexico’s security challenge is far from over.

CJNG Still Powerful After El Mencho and El Jardinero

The Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación has not shown clear signs of collapse after the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as El Mencho, according to security analysts who track organized crime in Mexico.

The assessment comes more than two months after El Mencho was killed during a military operation in Tapalpa, Jalisco. His death was seen as one of the largest blows against organized crime in Mexico in recent years.

Still, analysts say the cartel’s structure has not broken apart. They also say rival groups, including the Sinaloa Cartel, have not clearly capitalized on the leadership loss.

CJNG shows signs of adaptation, not collapse

The main finding is that CJNG remains operational despite the loss of its founder and top leader. Analysts described the cartel’s current behavior as a mix of tactical restraint and adaptation.

That means the group may be avoiding open internal conflict while it adjusts to new pressure. It also suggests the cartel’s local cells, money handlers, transport networks, and armed groups are still functioning.

For people living in Mexico, especially in states where CJNG has influence, this is an important distinction. A leader’s death can change a cartel, but it does not automatically end its operations.

Large criminal groups often survive through networks that extend beyond a single person. In CJNG’s case, analysts point to its financial channels, territorial alliances, and armed capacity as signs of continued strength.

El Jardinero arrest was a blow, but not a knockout

The capture of Audias Flores Silva, known as El Jardinero, added another major development to the cartel’s leadership struggle. He was arrested in Nayarit on April 27 during a Navy-led operation.

El Jardinero had been described as one of CJNG’s senior figures and a possible successor to El Mencho. His arrest was considered a tactical hit against the group.

Even so, analysts say it has not dismantled the cartel’s larger structure. The effect may be more local than national, especially if other leaders or regional operators can absorb his role.

The arrest did narrow the field of possible successors. Two names are still being discussed: Juan Carlos Valencia González, known as El 03, and Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytán, known as El Sapo.

So far, analysts say there are no clear signs of a public fight for control between them.

The business side keeps the cartel alive

One reason CJNG has remained active is that its criminal income is not dependent on a single leader. The group has long been linked to drug trafficking, extortion, fuel theft, illegal mining, and other illicit businesses.

Those operations involve many people and many routes. Removing a leader can disrupt decision-making, but it does not erase demand, supply chains, or local enforcement networks.

This is where CJNG’s structure matters. Analysts have described the group as having a broad territorial reach and a long history of alliances with local criminal groups.

The cartel’s strength has also come from its ability to mix violence with business control. That includes armed cells, logistical networks, and financial channels that can continue to operate even during leadership changes.

Security pressure may be shaping CJNG’s response

Mexico’s federal security strategy has placed growing pressure on CJNG since El Mencho’s death. The capture of El Jardinero appears to be part of that effort.

That pressure may help explain why the cartel has not entered a visible internal war. A public fight could expose leaders, routes, and local partners at a time when federal forces are watching closely.

Still, analysts warn that the situation could change. Cartel alliances are often unstable, and leadership disputes can take months to surface.

The Sinaloa Cartel offers a recent example. Internal violence there did not explode immediately after major leadership disruptions, but tensions grew over time.

For now, the available evidence points to continuity inside CJNG. The larger question is whether that continuity can hold as federal operations continue and possible successors compete for influence.

What this means for Mexico’s security outlook

The report does not suggest CJNG is untouched. Losing El Mencho and El Jardinero in the same year creates real pressure on the cartel’s leadership circle.

But the analysis does challenge the idea that major arrests or killings quickly end large criminal organizations. CJNG appears to remain a national security challenge because its power is spread across people, money, weapons, routes, and local alliances.

That is especially relevant in western Mexico, where Jalisco and Nayarit have been central to the cartel’s history. It also matters for residents and visitors who follow security news but may not know how to read cartel leadership stories.

A major capture can be important without being decisive. In CJNG’s case, analysts say the cartel still has enough structure to keep operating while it searches for its next stage.