Mexico’s economy showed a small gain in April after a weak first quarter. INEGI’s timely activity indicator estimated growth from both March and April 2025, but the numbers remain modest. Services continued to outperform the industry, with annual activity still negative. The reading gives an early look at the second quarter as Mexico moves closer to the scheduled 2026 review of the T-MEC trade agreement.
Mexico’s economy posts a small April gain
Mexico’s economy showed limited improvement in April, according to INEGI’s timely economic activity indicator.
The indicator estimated 0.3% monthly growth in April. It also estimated 0.3% annual growth compared with April 2025. The figures are seasonally adjusted and remain preliminary.
April followed a weak first quarter. INEGI’s timely GDP estimate showed the economy fell 0.8% from the previous quarter during January through March. Annual growth for the quarter was 0.2%.
The April estimate suggests the economy started the second quarter with slight growth. It does not show a strong rebound from the first-quarter decline.
Services remain stronger than industry
The April estimate showed different results across the economy.
Tertiary activities, which include services, were estimated to grow 0.3% from March. They were up 0.7% from April 2025.
Secondary activities, which include industry, also rose 0.3% from March. Compared with April 2025, they were down 1.0%.
That split was also visible in the first-quarter data. Tertiary activities grew 0.9% from a year earlier, while secondary activities fell 1.1%.
The estimate gives an early reading
The IOAE is an early estimate of Mexico’s broader economic activity. It is published before the full monthly activity report.
INEGI releases the indicator about three weeks after the reference month. The final monthly report takes longer.
For April, the early reading shows modest growth from March. It also shows weak annual growth, with the industry still below its level from a year earlier.
Trade review comes later this year
The April estimate comes before the first six-year review of the T-MEC, known as USMCA in the United States.
The trade agreement entered into force in 2020. Its first joint review is scheduled for July 1, 2026.
Mexico enters that review year after a weak first quarter and a slight improvement in April. Further monthly data will show whether the second quarter continues to recover.
