The Mexico peso rally stretched to a seventh session on Monday, trading near 18.34 per dollar as investors bet the Federal Reserve will start easing this week. Mexico’s IPC index pushed above 62,000 points intraday—its highest on record—helped by gains in Walmex and Peñoles. A softer dollar and firm precious metals prices added tailwinds. Markets in Mexico will pause on Tuesday for Independence Day, but the week’s tone is set: risk appetite is back, and policy signals from Washington and Mexico City now hold the keys to what comes next.
Mexico peso rally
The peso advanced for a seventh straight session on September 15, touching about 18.35 per dollar, its strongest since July 2024, as traders positioned for a widely expected quarter-point U.S. rate cut. A softer greenback across majors underscored the move.
Mexico’s equity benchmark joined the party. The S&P/BMV IPC pierced the 62,000 mark intraday—a fresh record zone—before easing, with Walmex and Peñoles among the day’s leaders. Local desks tied the push to a global risk bid and to bets that cheaper U.S. money will keep supporting flows to Mexican assets.
Fed bets set the tone
The rally has been fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut 25 bps at this week’s meeting. Fed-funds futures and broad market coverage have made that the base case, while the dollar index has eased into the decision as investors brace for guidance on the pace of further moves. What Chair Jerome Powell signals on the path—one and done or a series—will matter for the peso’s carry and for equities into year-end.
Mexico’s markets will be closed Tuesday, September 16, for Independence Day. That holiday-thinned liquidity can sharpen intraday moves around the Fed headlines when trading resumes.
Intraday record for the IPC
By late morning, the IPC had topped 62,000 points, an all-time intraday high, before stabilizing. Local media tracked the level in real time, while global wires also flagged the milestone. Breadth remained constructive, with consumer and materials names carrying the index.
Heavyweight Walmex benefited from defensive consumer flows and ongoing investment plans. At the same time, Peñoles rode firm precious-metals sentiment as silver traded near cycle highs this month and ticked higher on Monday. Those sector undercurrents helped Mexico keep pace with global equity gains heading into the Fed.
Where the peso actually finished
Spot pricing around the close put the exchange rate near 18.36 per dollar, modestly stronger than Friday, according to local market tallies and Banxico-tracked benchmarks reported by the financial press. That aligns with the wire-reported intraday low near 18.35 earlier in the session.
The Banxico backdrop
Domestic policy also matters for carry. A September survey of economists shows broad expectations that Banxico will trim its policy rate again on September 25, from a current 7.75%, keeping Mexico’s real rates attractive even with Fed easing. That gap is one reason global funds continue to favor peso-denominated assets when the dollar is soft.
Risks to watch
Two swing factors could interrupt the Mexico peso rally. First, if the Fed signals a slower or shallower path of cuts—or if the dollar whipsaws on the dots and Powell’s Q&A—the peso could give back recent gains. Second, Mexico’s own data and policy signals in the run-up to Banxico’s meeting will shape rate-differential math. For equities, metals remain a tell: silver has been strong this year and was up again on Monday, a plus for miners, but volatility is high into policy weeks.
