Mexico says most exports sent to the United States would not face a proposed new tariff tied to the enforcement of forced labor. That protection rests on a familiar pressure point, whether goods qualify under USMCA rules of origin. The greater risk lies with the remaining slice of trade and with sectors already caught in separate U.S. tariff programs. The latest dispute comes as Washington seeks firmer legal footing for trade penalties and Mexico prepares for another round of talks.
Most exports stay behind the USMCA shield
Mexico’s Economy Ministry says roughly 85 percent of Mexican exports to the United States would be excluded from a proposed 10 percent U.S. tariff because those goods comply with USMCA rules of origin.
The clarification came after consultations with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. It narrows Mexico’s immediate exposure, but it does not remove the trade risk. The remaining 15 percent, along with autos, steel, and aluminum already covered by separate tariff orders, remains outside that protection.
“The trade of Mexico that complies with rules of origin under the USMCA, around 85 percent of the volume of our exports, is exempt from the measure,” the ministry said.
Mexico is now trying to keep the rest out of the measure. The ministry said it will hold formal talks with USTR during the coming weeks, including a round led by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard.
What the U.S. is proposing
The proposal stems from a USTR Section 301 investigation into whether 60 economies failed to impose or enforce bans on imports made with forced labor. USTR’s notice places Mexico among six economies found to have failed to enforce such a ban effectively, rather than among the 54 found to lack one entirely.
The office proposed an additional 10 percent in duties for Mexico, Canada, the European Union, and several other economies. Other economies would face 12.5 percent. The proposal remains open for comments, with written submissions due July 6 and hearings set for July 7.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer framed the proposal as an enforcement issue. “The failure of our most important trading partners to address the importation of goods made with forced labor is unacceptable,” he said.
Mexico describes the process as a 45-day window for consultation and technical talks. That gives the government time to argue that its forced-labor controls and treaty commitments should limit or eliminate the proposed duty on the remaining share of exports.
The exposed sectors are a separate fight
One important caveat sits inside the U.S. notice. The proposed action does not cover goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, including autos, steel, and aluminum.
That is not the same as a waiver. It means those sectors remain subject to separate U.S. tariff programs already in place. The White House has said steel and aluminum tariff rates were raised to 50 percent in 2025, with copper later added to the same structure.
For Mexican exporters, the result is a split picture. Most USMCA-compliant shipments avoid this proposed duty. Some high-value sectors still face older U.S. tariff tools, especially when Washington invokes national security or industrial policy.
That same divide has shaped earlier trade fights, including the U.S. import surcharge that left USMCA-compliant goods from Mexico outside the duty. It also fits the broader pattern in which rules of origin increasingly decide which Mexican goods keep preferential access, as seen in earlier coverage of Mexico’s low U.S. tariff rate.
Mexico points to its forced-labor mechanism
Mexico has a forced-labor import mechanism because the labor chapter of USMCA requires each country to prohibit imports made wholly or partly with forced or compulsory labor, including forced child labor. Mexico’s government says its Trabajo Forzoso mechanism began with an agreement published in February 2023 and has been in force since May 2023.
The mechanism allows authorities to investigate and restrict imports into Mexico when goods are found to have been made with forced labor. It was updated in October 2025, according to the government site.
Washington’s objection is narrower than the claim that Mexico has no rule. USTR says Mexico has failed to enforce a prohibition effectively. That distinction may shape the talks over the export share that does not qualify under USMCA rules of origin.
The ministry said, “Mexico is confident that the tariff proposal affecting 15 percent of its trade will be modified.”
That confidence is a position, not an outcome. USTR is still taking comments, and the final product scope, rates, and exemptions can change before any measure takes effect.
The timing adds pressure. The 2026 USMCA review already carries disputes over autos, labor, origin rules, and investment conditions. The current tariff proposal now places Mexico’s non-compliant export share directly inside that negotiation climate, while leaving the larger treaty-protected trade flow mostly intact.
