Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – A low-pressure system is anticipated to develop off the Pacific coast of southern Mexico and Central America this week. If it organizes into a tropical storm, it will earn the name Barbara, marking the second named storm of the Pacific hurricane season 2025.
Into Monday, June 2, 2025, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted an “area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico during the middle to late portions of this week.” Environmental conditions—such as sea surface temperatures hovering around 28–29 °C and moderate wind shear—could prove marginally conducive for gradual development. Currently, the NHC assigns a 40 percent chance for this disturbance to become a tropical cyclone within seven days.
Background on Pacific Hurricane Season 2025
According to NOAA’s outlook released in late May, the Pacific hurricane season 2025 is forecast to be near-average, featuring between 12 and 18 named storms, of which 5 to 10 could reach hurricane strength. Forecasters attribute this projection to neutral to weak La Niña conditions, which tend to suppress wind shear across the basin and keep sea surface temperatures slightly above average. As of early June, only one named storm—Tropical Storm Alvin—has already spun up south of Mexico, and its remnants are dissolving over cooler waters.
Historically, the second named storm in the Eastern Pacific often arrives in early June. Last year’s Barbara tracked well south of Mexico and dissipated without significant land impacts. The current disturbance lies only a few hundred miles offshore of southern Mexico’s Pacific coast and requires further organization before reaching tropical depression status.
Current Observations and Forecast
Satellite imagery on Monday shows a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms roughly 200–250 nautical miles off the coast of Chiapas and Oaxaca. Forecasters report upper‐level winds are only marginally favorable, creating a tug-of-war between the system’s deep convection and moderate southwesterly shear. The NHC’s latest graphical outlook highlights a small concentration of showers and thunderstorms anchored near 13°N, 96°W, drifting west-northwest at about 8 mph.
If vertical wind shear remains below 20 kt and sea surface temperatures stay near 28 °C, the low-pressure area may acquire a closed surface circulation by late week. Should this occur, the NHC anticipates the classification of Tropical Depression Two-E, which would automatically become Tropical Storm Barbara upon naming. Model guidance from the European Centre (ECMWF) and the U.S. GFS are in broad agreement on a west-northwest track, steadily pushing the system away from mainland Mexico.
Potential Impacts on Mexico’s Pacific Coast
Even if Barbara forms, its forecast path suggests minimal direct landfall threats. However, outer rainbands may deliver heavy downpours to coastal Chiapas, Oaxaca, and possibly Guerrero by late in the week. Local authorities in these states should prepare for brief periods of gusty winds (estimated around 20–25 mph) and possible urban flooding in low-lying areas. Swells generated by the disturbance could produce dangerous rip currents from southern Mexico down through El Salvador and Guatemala.
According to the Mexican National Weather Service, any tropical cyclone approaching this portion of the coast typically elevates the risk of rainfall totals ranging from 2 to 4 inches in a 24-hour span, with isolated pockets reaching as high as 6 inches. These accumulations can trigger flash floods and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Although Barbara’s anticipated trajectory keeps the center offshore, venturing just 100 to 150 miles out to sea would still allow feeder bands to tap into warm, moisture-laden air, feeding convection closer to the coast.
Preparations and Advice for Residents
State Civil Protection Units in Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Guerrero have been advised to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center. Fishermen and coastal communities should heed small-craft advisories for choppy seas and possible wind gusts. Over the next 48 hours, the NHC’s chance of development remains low (near 0 percent), but conditions are expected to become increasingly favorable by midweek.
Residents of Puerto Madero, Puerto Escondido, and other western Oaxaca fishing villages should secure boats and prepare sandbags to protect against street flooding. Authorities in Acapulco and Zihuatanejo are unlikely to experience direct impacts but should still alert tourists about potential choppy water conditions.
Outlook Beyond Barbara
Should Barbara form, it would be the second named storm of the Pacific hurricane season 2025, following Alvin, which formed on May 29 south of Mexico and briefly reached peak winds of 45 mph before dissipating in cooler waters. Even if Barbara remains weak, its development would underscore that this season is off to a pace consistent with climatology. In contrast to the record-late start of 2024—when the first storm did not form until July—the basin has already observed early action this year.
Looking ahead, climatological peaks in August and September may see up to five additional storms, fueled by persistent warm waters and moderate shear. Global models suggest a brief easterly tropical wave could follow Barbara by mid-June, warranting further monitoring for any signs of regeneration or redevelopment near Central America. In the meantime, forecasters will issue routine outlook updates every twelve hours until the disturbance either dissipates or intensifies into a tropical cyclone.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - A low-pressure system is anticipated to develop off the Pacific coast of southern Mexico and Central America this week. If . . .
