Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Oct. 6, 2026 — A developing Pacific system could pass near Banderas Bay this weekend, meteorologist Víctor Manuel Cornejo López said Tuesday.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center’s Tuesday morning outlook gives the disturbance a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Forecasters expect a tropical depression to develop Wednesday or Thursday.
We reviewed that outlook. It projects movement toward the west-northwest or northwest, but does not establish a weekend passage near Banderas Bay.
Rainfall and road conditions
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service forecast calls for pockets of heavy rain Tuesday in western and southern Jalisco. Forecast accumulations range from 25 to 50 millimeters, roughly 1 to 2 inches.
Those amounts apply to parts of the region, rather than a specific forecast for Puerto Vallarta. The service says thunderstorms could bring flooding, rising rivers and streams, and reduced road visibility.
The hurricane center expects heavy rainfall across parts of southern and southwestern Mexico regardless of whether the disturbance develops. In its coastal monitoring advice, the center said: “Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”
The 90% figure measures the likelihood of cyclone formation. It does not give the probability of a strike on Puerto Vallarta.
Drainage work in Las Glorias and Versalles
The forecast comes as SEAPAL Vallarta addresses existing drainage problems. Its Oct. 5 notice on work in Las Glorias describes sewer clearing and pumping operations coordinated with municipal Civil Protection.
SEAPAL says its contingency plans include surface piping and an additional pump if rain causes more water accumulation. The utility says those measures aim to limit effects along Avenida Francisco Medina Ascencio and parts of Versalles.
For readers assessing their street or property, our reporting on why Puerto Vallarta streets flood during heavy rain provides local background.
At the Norte I wastewater treatment plant in Las Mojoneras, SEAPAL reports installing a temporary pump after equipment damage. The utility says the additional capacity will help move wastewater as rainwater enters the sanitary system, particularly in Versalles.
