U.S. Model predicts Mexico is still two months from its pandemic peak with 130,000 deaths by September

According to the mathematical model based on artificial intelligence and developed by Youyang Gu, a data scientist graduated from the Massachusetts Technological Institute, this Monday there will be approximately 964,955 active carriers of the coronavirus in Mexico, 240,000 more cases than the previous week.

The same model is used by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States and has had a margin of error of less than 10% with respect to the figures confirmed in the United States.

Mexico uses its own system for predictions, however, the methods and data used to produce the model in Mexico is a guarded secret by the Government.

The U.S. model estimates that the peak of the epidemic will be on July 25 in Mexico, with 3.4 million active carriers, while the highest number of deaths will be on August 6, with an estimated 1,934 deaths.

For the first days of September, according to the model, 131,285 people will have lost their lives in the country, which is equivalent to one death for every 1,000 inhabitants. This would place Mexico as the nation with the highest mortality rate in the world, according to the information obtained by Proceso magazine.

This model estimates the number of total infected in a country, not only the people who tested positive for COVID-19, because according to the data scientist, “ the vast majority of individuals are not tested, and therefore are not reported as a positive case ”.

In the United States, the actual number of infected people is five times greater than reported, while in Mexico it is 25 times greater than the official figures; to date, around 2.3 million Mexicans have been infected.

While, in a study published, on May 25, by the Institute of Physics of the Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) indicated that the peak of the epidemic at the national level would be recorded between June 27 and July 13. They projected that the first cycle of the epidemic will close with 126,000 confirmed cases and by the end of May, 1% of Mexicans would have immunity from the virus. “Which would not allow herd immunity,” stated its author, Octavio Miramontes.

It should be remembered that models change as governmental policy and the population adopt new measures to control the spread of the virus. Models are also only as accurate as the information provided.

Business across Mexico are set to open tomorrow, June 1, 2020 after two months of stay at home orders. While businesses will begin to open, the government is still recommending social distancing, the use of masks, hand washing, and staying home as effective ways to control the spread of the virus as the country moves into a ‘New Normal’ phases.


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