Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, October 26, 2026 — Tropical Storm Vance continued weakening Monday, but federal forecasters warned of heavy rain, thunderstorms and dangerous surf along the Jalisco and Nayarit coasts.
The National Meteorological Service’s 6 a.m. forecast calls for localized rainfall of 50–75 millimeters in western Jalisco and southern Nayarit today. It warns that rain could raise rivers and streams and cause landslides, flooding, and reduced visibility. Along Jalisco’s coast, waves could reach 2–3 meters, with wind gusts of 30–50 km/h.
The Mexican Navy’s 4 a.m. bulletin, using the storm’s position an hour earlier, placed Vance approximately 596 kilometers south of Puerto Vallarta. Maximum sustained winds near its center were 102 km/h, with gusts of 120 km/h, while it moved northwest at just 9 km/h. Those are measurements near the offshore storm, rather than winds forecast for the city.
For people around Banderas Bay, the practical question is straightforward: If Vance is losing strength, how much should it still affect Monday’s plans?
The answer depends on the rain and sea conditions still forecast. Lower wind speeds at the storm’s center do not remove those hazards. Whether the day involves errands between Puerto Vallarta and Bahía de Banderas or a boat trip to the southern beaches, the conditions along the route still matter.
Vance “continues weakening gradually,” the Navy said, translated from Spanish. Its forecast nevertheless brings the center closer to Puerto Vallarta through Tuesday, reaching approximately 458 kilometers south-southwest of the city by noon, with sustained winds reduced to about 74 km/h. That projection combines a weaker storm with a closer offshore position.
Monday’s update follows Vallarta Daily’s Saturday report on Vance’s weakening and western Jalisco’s rain risk. The latest forecasts give residents a more immediate basis for decisions than the hurricane’s earlier strength.
Rainfall is the concern that reaches beyond the waterfront. The national weather service expects thunderstorms across the central Pacific region, and its warning about rising waterways and landslides matters for travel as well as homes. Heavy rain can affect a journey even when the destination receives less.
The coastal forecast also deserves careful reading. The Navy reported waves of approximately 4.2–4.8 meters near Vance itself. Its separate warning flags elevated seas along both Jalisco and Nayarit, while the national weather service gives the more specific 2–3-meter forecast for Jalisco’s coastline.
These are regional forecasts. They don’t establish identical surf at every beach in Banderas Bay or guarantee every neighborhood will receive the same rainfall total.
For anyone planning to swim or travel by boat, that makes beach instructions and port restrictions part of the day’s decision. The national cyclone advisory urges people to follow Civil Protection guidance and take precautions for rain, wind and waves, including maritime navigation. The Navy also calls for heightened precautions for port and coastal vessels.
The Navy scheduled its next bulletin for 10 a.m. Monday, Puerto Vallarta time—a useful checkpoint before an afternoon departure onto the water.
