Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, October 22, 2026 – Tropical Storm Vance strengthened Thursday after forming Wednesday, and forecasters predict a major hurricane by Saturday, though the system remains far offshore.
The National Hurricane Center’s 3 a.m. advisory placed Vance about 820 kilometers south-southwest of Acapulco and 1,075 kilometers south-southeast of Manzanillo. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 85 kilometers per hour, or 50 mph. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.
For Puerto Vallarta, the central question is whether Vance could affect conditions here while its center stays offshore. The current forecasts point to increasing coastal hazards this weekend, with the storm expected to turn northwest and then move farther north toward waters south of Jalisco.
Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, or SMN, said in its early Thursday storm bulletin that Vance was too distant to be affecting the country at that time. Its longer-range outlook, however, identifies rain and higher waves as concerns for Jalisco over the coming days.
The NHC expects swells from Vance to begin reaching portions of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. Those swells could produce “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” the center warned.
The SMN’s extended forecast, issued Wednesday afternoon, projects waves of 2 to 3 meters along Jalisco’s coast Saturday, increasing to 3 to 4 meters Sunday. It also forecasts 25 to 50 millimeters of rain in parts of western and southwestern Jalisco on Friday and Saturday.
Those figures cover broader coastal and regional areas; they do not specify wave heights or rainfall totals at individual Puerto Vallarta beaches or neighborhoods. They still give residents and businesses a reason to watch the weekend forecast, especially when planning swimming, fishing, or boat trips.
Vance was moving west at 11 kilometers per hour Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extended as far as 130 kilometers from its center, according to the NHC.
The system became a tropical storm Wednesday afternoon, initially carrying sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour. Forecasters now expect a substantial increase in strength over the next two days.
The NHC’s forecast positions and wind estimates put Vance at hurricane strength around midnight Thursday night, Puerto Vallarta time. By noon Saturday, the forecast calls for sustained winds near 195 kilometers per hour, or 120 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane.
Its projected center remains over the Pacific throughout the five-day forecast. By early Tuesday, it would still be south of Puerto Vallarta, with some weakening expected after the weekend.
The later track deserves particular attention. In their Thursday forecast discussion, NHC forecasters said “forecast confidence decreases significantly” by the third day. Steering winds are expected to weaken, leaving computer models with a wider range of possible paths.
Warm ocean water, abundant moisture and relatively little disruptive wind shear currently favor strengthening. Later, increasing wind shear is expected to make conditions less favorable and gradually weaken the cyclone.
For Thursday itself, the SMN’s 6 a.m. national forecast calls for 5 to 25 millimeters of rain in parts of Jalisco, with thunderstorms possible. It attributes the broader rain pattern to low-pressure channels and incoming moisture, so rain in Vallarta today should not automatically be treated as an effect of Vance.
The practical distinction for residents is between the storm’s offshore position and the conditions reaching the coast. As Vallarta Daily’s hurricane-season guide notes, waves and heavy rain can disrupt daily life without a hurricane making landfall in the city.
For anyone planning time on the water this weekend, local beach flags, lifeguard instructions and harbor notices will be essential checks. The NHC’s next complete advisory is scheduled for 9 a.m. Thursday, Puerto Vallarta time.