Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – Discover when the first hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season is expected to forms, the monthly likelihood of storm development, and will Puerto Vallarta experiences direct or indirect impacts from a hurricane in 2025.
Every year as May rolls around, residents and visitors along Mexico’s Pacific coast begin to turn their attention toward the ocean, wondering: when will the first hurricane of the season develop? Officially, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 through November 30, but historically, hurricanes rarely start churning right away.
So, when does the first hurricane typically form? According to meteorologists, while the season officially begins in mid-May, the first named tropical storm usually appears around June 10, and the first hurricane doesn’t typically show up until late June. Major hurricanes—those Category 3 or higher storms—usually hold off until July. If you’re wondering when the first hurricane of the season is likely to arrive, the safe bet is late June or early July, based on history.
But what are the actual chances of seeing a hurricane form in each month of the hurricane season? Historical data paints a clear picture: May is exceptionally quiet, with less than a 3% chance of hurricane development. The likelihood picks up slightly in June (about 13%), becomes more noticeable in July (around 19%), and peaks dramatically in August and September, which together account for more than half of all hurricane activity each year. After September, activity declines again through October and into November, signaling the winding down of storm season.
While these statistics might reassure those traveling to Mexico in May or early June, residents in popular coastal cities like Puerto Vallarta understandably remain cautious. But how often does Puerto Vallarta actually experience a direct hit from a hurricane?
Thanks to its unique location along the Bay of Banderas—surrounded by mountains that provide a natural barrier—Puerto Vallarta rarely sees direct hurricane landfalls. Historically, direct hits are extremely rare, occurring just twice in the past 75 years. Notably, Hurricane Kenna in 2002, a powerful Category 4 storm, brushed close enough to cause significant damage from storm surges and strong winds. More recently, in 2023, Hurricane Lidia made landfall near the resort zone, reminding residents that while rare, direct hits can and do happen.
However, Puerto Vallarta more frequently experiences indirect impacts from hurricanes that pass offshore. Heavy rains, flooding, and occasional strong winds from storms that never make landfall can still disrupt daily life. Tropical Storm Javier in 1998, Hurricane Nora in 1997, and even the historic Category 5 Hurricane Patricia in 2015 (which made landfall south of the city) all impacted Puerto Vallarta significantly, despite not making direct hits.
Statistically speaking, the odds of Puerto Vallarta receiving a direct hurricane strike in any given year are very low—less than 3%. However, when factoring in indirect impacts from nearby storms, the risk increases to approximately 10–15% each hurricane season, especially during the peak months of August and September.
What does all this mean for residents and tourists? Simply this: enjoy the beautiful beaches and sunshine in May and June with minimal hurricane worries, but always stay alert from July through October. It’s essential to monitor local weather updates and follow guidance from emergency officials, especially during the peak storm months.
As hurricane season begins, awareness and preparation remain key. While Puerto Vallarta is fortunate to avoid frequent direct hits, its residents know firsthand that even distant storms can leave a lasting impression.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - Discover when the first hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season is expected to forms, the monthly likelihood of storm development, and will Puerto Vallarta experiences direct or indirect impacts from a hurricane in 2025.
