The SMN and NOAA reports a 50% chance of the Pacific’s first cyclone of 2025 forming south of Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca, will it affect Puerto Vallarta next week?
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) confirmed Thursday morning that it is closely monitoring a low-pressure area south of Michoacán, Guerrero and Oaxaca with a 50 percent chance of developing into the season’s first Pacific cyclone within the next seven days. According to the SMN’s update on its X account, oceanic and atmospheric conditions remain favorable for gradual strengthening of this system over the coming days.
Jalisco Civil Protection echoed the SMN’s assessment yesterday, noting that the disturbance is moving west-northwest at 15 to 24 km/h and is expected to organize into a low-pressure zone early next week. “No impact on Jalisco is expected in the coming days; monitoring is ongoing,” the agency stated, adding that residents of Puerto Vallarta and surrounding coastal communities do not need to take any precautionary measures at this time.
The 2025 Pacific hurricane season officially began on May 15, and forecasters anticipate heightened activity in the months ahead. The SMN projects the formation of 16 to 20 named storms in the Pacific basin. Of these, 8 to 9 are expected to reach tropical storm strength, 4 to 5 could intensify to Category 1 or 2 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale, and 4 to 6 may become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). In the Atlantic basin, where season onset is June 1, projections include 13 to 17 named storms, with 7 to 9 becoming tropical storms, and 6 to 8 achieving hurricane status (3 to 4 in Category 1 or 2, and 3 to 4 in Category 3 or above).
Historically, Pacific cyclones that form south of Michoacán and Guerrero tend to track westward away from the Mexican coastline, limiting direct impacts on Jalisco. However, meteorologists caution that shifts in steering currents or rapid intensification near shore can occasionally bring these systems closer to land. Civil Protection agencies remain vigilant, coordinating with municipal authorities to ensure timely dissemination of any watches or warnings should the disturbance evolve more rapidly than currently anticipated.
Although current models show little risk to Puerto Vallarta, residents and visitors are advised to stay informed via official channels—SMN’s website and social media feeds, as well as Jalisco Civil Protection bulletins—and review personal emergency plans in the event of sudden weather changes.
