Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Oct. 9, 2026 — Hurricane Simon could produce waves up to 8 meters along Jalisco’s coast this weekend, with Puerto Vallarta among the municipalities under a cyclone alert.
A Friday forecast from Jalisco Civil Protection calls for waves between 6 and 8 meters Saturday and Sunday. A separate state outlook places the highest waves on Sunday.
At noon Friday, Simon was a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 155 km/h. The storm was approximately 500 kilometers south-southeast of Cabo Corrientes, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory.
Puerto Vallarta faces the possibility of eight-meter waves
Puerto Vallarta, Cabo Corrientes and Tomatlán are among 22 Jalisco municipalities placed under a yellow tropical cyclone alert.
The state’s forecast covers both the Costa Norte and Costa Sur regions. Earlier reporting on the Civil Protection warning specifically included Puerto Vallarta among municipalities that could face waves of 6 to 8 meters over the weekend.
However, the figure is a regional forecast. Our review of the official advisories found no prediction that waves will reach 8 meters at the Malecón, Playa de los Muertos, or any individual beach inside Banderas Bay.
That distinction matters because wave conditions can vary along the coastline. A forecast maximum for Jalisco does not mean every beach will experience waves of the same height.
The National Hurricane Center warned Friday that Simon’s swells could produce “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions” along portions of Mexico’s Pacific coast.
For residents and visitors near the Malecón on Paseo Díaz Ordaz, Playa de los Muertos and beaches in the Hotel Zone, state authorities recommend staying away from exposed shorelines and suspending recreational activities in the water.
Puerto Vallarta has also begun preparations for preventive evacuations in vulnerable areas. State education officials suspended in-person classes Friday and Monday in 22 municipalities, including Puerto Vallarta.
Jalisco Civil Protection forecasts rainfall totals of 150 to 200 millimeters through Sunday, along with coastal wind gusts of 60 to 100 km/h, potentially higher in exposed areas.
How Simon’s forecast compares with Hurricane Kenna in 2002
The upper end of Simon’s regional wave forecast matches the height of waves that struck central Puerto Vallarta during Hurricane Kenna on Oct. 25, 2002.
According to a federal government report on the Islas Marietas National Park, Kenna generated waves reaching 8 meters in central Puerto Vallarta, causing extensive damage to the waterfront.
Kenna made landfall farther north, in Nayarit, but its effects reached Puerto Vallarta and damaged the historic Malecón.
Contemporary accounts described waves carrying vehicles through flooded areas and seawater entering hotel lobbies. The storm damaged waterfront infrastructure, businesses, and sections of the city’s tourist district.
The eight-meter waves recorded in 2002 were approximately 26 feet high.
For residents who remember Kenna, the similar numbers in Simon’s forecast offer a historical comparison. However, the two figures differ in an important way.
Kenna’s eight-meter waves describe conditions that actually reached central Puerto Vallarta. Simon’s eight-meter figure is a forecast maximum for the broader Jalisco coastline.
The numbers alone do not mean Simon will follow Kenna’s path or cause the same damage in Puerto Vallarta.
Officials warn of dangerous surf throughout the weekend
A separate regional forecast reported Friday cited waves potentially reaching 8.5 meters Saturday along Colima and southern Jalisco.
That higher estimate has not been confirmed as a beach-specific forecast for Puerto Vallarta. The state’s latest official advisory still projects waves of 6 to 8 meters along the Jalisco coast Saturday and Sunday.
The National Hurricane Center also maintains a hurricane warning from Punta San Telmo, Michoacán, to Punta Mita, Nayarit, which includes Puerto Vallarta.
Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area Saturday evening or Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier Saturday.
State Civil Protection’s weekend outlook identifies coastal flooding, rising rivers, landslides, and falling trees among the possible impacts.
Authorities have instructed residents to avoid the sea, stay away from rocky shorelines and refrain from crossing flooded streets or streams. Residents in areas subject to evacuation orders should follow instructions from local emergency personnel.
