Mexico sees national drought relief thanks to June rains, but states like Sonora and Baja California report worsening conditions, Conagua reports.
Rainfall during the first half of June has brought widespread relief from drought across much of Mexico, but the country’s northwest remains in critical condition, according to the National Water Commission (Conagua). In its most recent Drought Monitor report, Conagua revealed that while the overall national outlook has improved significantly, several northern states are now experiencing some of the worst drought levels in recent years.
As of June 15, 2025, 45.6% of Mexico’s national territory is no longer affected by drought—an impressive recovery compared to just 12.2% at the same time last year. The number of municipalities free from both drought and abnormally dry conditions skyrocketed from just 48 in June 2024 to 1,860 in 2025, reflecting an 85.6% decrease in municipalities experiencing drought. Meanwhile, the share of the country under moderate to exceptional drought (categories D1 to D4) dropped from 73.79% to 37.5%, and extreme to exceptional drought (D3 and D4) was cut in half—from 37.5% to 18.7%.
However, while the rains helped central and southern states recover, the northwest is facing a worsening crisis.
Northwest Under Pressure
In Sonora, 100% of the state’s territory is experiencing drought, with 92.7% categorized as severe (D2), extreme (D3), or exceptional (D4). That’s a stark increase from 2024, when 84.7% of Sonora’s municipalities were affected. Now, every municipality in the state is under drought conditions.
Sinaloa follows closely, with 94.4% of municipalities facing drought. Baja California experienced a dramatic shift—going from 0% of municipalities affected in June 2024 to 85.7% in 2025. Baja California Sur also saw a jump, with 80% of municipalities now under drought, up from none the previous year.
This reversal in the northwest contrasts sharply with the recovery seen in the rest of the country.
Rainfall Brings Relief Elsewhere
Southern and central states such as Guerrero, Colima, Morelos, Mexico City, Tlaxcala, and Guanajuato reported no drought-affected areas as of mid-June. Oaxaca and Veracruz also showed marked improvement.
Conagua attributes the rainfall to multiple weather events, including the passage of Tropical Waves No. 2 and 3, low-pressure systems, and moisture associated with Tropical Storm Dalila, which swept along the Pacific coast.
“These phenomena contributed to significant rainfall across large portions of the country,” the agency reported. “Thanks to these rains, extreme and exceptional drought in Sonora and Chihuahua decreased, while moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions diminished across the western, central, and southern regions.”
Watersheds and Regional Variations
Of the 13 major hydrological regions in the country, 9 showed a reduction in drought-affected areas, while 3 experienced increases, and one remained unchanged.
The Baja California Peninsula saw the most severe deterioration. In June 2024, none of its territory was under drought conditions. Just one year later, 85.7% of the region is experiencing some level of drought.
In contrast, regions like the Valley of Mexico, Balsas, Lerma-Santiago-Pacific, and South Pacific have been declared completely drought-free.
Abnormally Dry Conditions Still Present
Although overall drought has decreased, the report noted a slight rise in abnormally dry conditions (D0), which are considered precursors to drought. These conditions increased from 14.0% in June 2024 to 16.9% in 2025. While not as immediately concerning as severe drought levels, this uptick signals areas that could slip back into drought without continued rainfall.
Despite the grim picture in the northwest, the national improvement underscores the importance of seasonal weather events and the impact of tropical systems on water availability in Mexico. Authorities continue to monitor the situation, especially in drought-stricken areas of the north, where agricultural and water supply stress is expected to persist.
While June brought much-needed relief to much of the country, the sharp contrast between regions underscores a persistent challenge: managing water resources in the face of extreme regional disparities and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
