A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located afew hundred miles south of the coasts of southern Mexico,Guatemala, and El Salvador are associated with a trough of lowpressure.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradualdevelopment of this system and a tropical depression is likely toform late this week or over the weekend while it drifts generallynorthward.

• Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
• Formation chance through 5 days…high…70 percent.

If the tropical depression forms, the first named storm of the season will be Amanda.