Hurricane Bud has become the second major hurricane in just over three days in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and will bring at least more peripheral impacts to parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast than its predecessor last week, Aletta.
Infrared satellite imagery shows some outer rainbands wrapping toward the southwest coast of Mexico, generally from Zihuatanejo westward.
These outer rainbands will continue to push ashore at times through midweek.
Bud is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals up to 10 inches, through Tuesday afternoon over portions of southwestern Mexico. This heavy rain could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in high-terrain areas.
The Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico, from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, due to the possibility of tropical-storm-force winds (39 to 73 mph) in this area within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Bud’s eyewall containing its strongest winds will remain far offshore. However, we can’t rule out a brush of tropical storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, as those aforementioned rainbands brush the states of Jalisco and Colima.
Late in the week, the center of Bud could approach Mexico’s southern Baja California Peninsula, but it will be weakening as it nears Los Cabos due to cooler water and increased wind shear.
At this time, the most likely outcome is the passing of Bud as a low-end tropical storm or tropical depression near Los Cabos Friday. Interests in Los Cabos should continue to monitor the progress of Bud this week.
High surf and rip currents will be a threat much of this week along the southwest coast of Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula. If in doubt, stay out of the water at area beaches this week and heed all warnings from local lifeguards.