The Mexican peso falls against the dollar after solid US retail sales and lower unemployment claims boost the greenback, closing at 18.7569 per dollar in Thursday trading.
The Mexican peso fell against the dollar in Thursday’s session, weighed down by a stronger greenback following hawkish US economic reports. The local currency closed at 18.7569 per dollar, slipping 0.16 percent from Wednesday’s 18.7274 close, according to data from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Traders pointed to rising US retail sales and a drop in unemployment claims as key drivers of the peso’s weakness.
Mexican peso falls
The peso traded within a range throughout the day, hitting a high of 18.8455 and a low of 18.7217. Meanwhile, the Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency against six major peers, climbed 0.36 percent to 98.64. A firming dollar often pressures emerging‑market currencies like the peso by making dollar‑priced assets relatively more attractive.
US retail sales data released Thursday showed a 0.6 percent month‑on‑month gain in June, beating the 0.2 percent forecast. On a year‑on‑year basis, sales rose 3.5 percent. Even when auto sales were stripped out, retail sales grew 0.5 percent, topping the expected 0.3 percent rise. Strong consumer spending adds to arguments for keeping US interest rates steady, reinforcing dollar strength.
Labor market figures lent further support to the greenback’s rally. Initial unemployment claims fell to 221,000 for the week ending July 12—a drop of 7,000 from the prior week and below the 234,000 economists had expected. Lower claims suggest resilient US employment, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon.
“While this is good news for the US economy, President Trump may find a strong dollar unwelcome,” said Andrés Espinosa, business development manager at Excent Capital. “A robust economy and stronger currency both argue for stable rates,” he added, noting that the Fed will watch incoming data closely.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized in recent remarks that the central bank should hold rates steady “for some time” as the effects of tariffs feed into inflation. Her comments reinforced market expectations that any rate cuts remain off the table until later in the year, underpinning dollar demand.
Monex Grupo Financiero noted that the peso is likely to trade within a narrow band. “We expect an intraday range of 18.76 to 18.83 by the close,” the firm said, forecasting an overnight window between 18.72 and 18.83. Such forecasts reflect a view that short‑term swings will hinge on US data and Fed commentary more than domestic factors.
Looking ahead, investors will watch Friday’s US consumer confidence report and next week’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for further clues on rate policy. Until then, market sentiment may stay tilted toward the dollar, keeping pressure on the peso amid an uneven global growth outlook.
Mexican peso, currency exchange, US retail sales, unemployment claims, Banxico, Federal Reserve, DXY
