The eastern Pacific is getting active early. One system off southern Mexico has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression soon, while another is forming farther south near Central America. Puerto Vallarta is not under a warning, but the setup is worth watching. Rain, ocean swell, and the eventual track could decide how much of this stays south and how much reaches farther up Mexico’s Pacific coast.
Two Pacific Storm Threats Put Puerto Vallarta on Watch
Puerto Vallarta is not in the main forecast zone yet, but the eastern Pacific has turned active fast.
Two developing systems are being tracked off Mexico and Central America. The closest one, known as EP91, was south of Acapulco on Sunday, June 7, with a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. A second system, EP92, farther southeast near Central America, had a 70 percent chance over the same period, according to the latest eastern Pacific outlook.
No tropical storm warning has been issued for Puerto Vallarta. The first risk is farther south, where EP91 is expected to move northeast and then north, approaching the coast of southern Mexico Sunday night and Monday.
Forecasters said “heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding are possible” across parts of southern Mexico through early this week.
Puerto Vallarta is north of the first forecast concern
This is not a local landfall forecast for Puerto Vallarta. It is a system for keeping watch from Banderas Bay.
Early-season Pacific systems often form near Oaxaca, Guerrero, or Central America before the forecast becomes clearer. Some stay south. Others pull moisture north or send heavier surf along the coast. The track can change once a closed center forms.
The marine forecast already shows rougher conditions south of Jalisco. The latest tropical weather discussion said EP91 was helping produce fresh to strong southwest to west winds and seas of 6 to 10 (2-3 meters) feet offshore of southern Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms were also spread across those waters.
The same forecast said the wet monsoon pattern would expand northward toward the coast through Monday. Winds could approach gale force in some offshore areas, with very rough seas.
For Puerto Vallarta, the next 24 to 48 hours will say more than the first forecast map. The main things to watch are the track, the rain field, and the ocean swell. Those details can affect port activity, beach flags, boat tours, mountain roads, and flights even when a storm center stays far away.
Two systems are forming in the same active zone
EP91 is the system tied most directly to Mexico. It was south of Acapulco, and forecasters said a tropical depression was likely to form soon. If that happens, advisories will begin giving a clearer track and wind field.
EP92 is farther southeast. It is moving slowly north toward Central America, where the heaviest rain concern covers Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. That system is not a Puerto Vallarta storm at this point.
Both systems are developing along the same active monsoon trough, a belt of low pressure and stormy weather that often helps organize tropical systems in the eastern Pacific.
Puerto Vallarta’s Pacific hurricane season began May 15 and runs through November 30. Local planning has already started for what forecasters expect to be an active season. The city’s main exposure often comes from rain, surf, rivers, and drainage, even when a storm passes offshore. That risk is covered in the local Puerto Vallarta hurricane season guide.
As of Sunday morning, the strongest forecast concern remains south of Jalisco. The next updates will show whether EP91 forms a closed center, how close it tracks to the coast after Monday, and whether its rain shield starts spreading farther up Mexico’s Pacific coastline.
