Ciudad del Carmen’s economy is still stuck in reverse. Local business leaders say Pemex’s 2024 arrears are starving firms of cash, even as some 2025 invoices are being paid. Prime contractors have seen movement, but small and mid-size suppliers remain jammed in a maze of unprocessed invoices and closed payment systems. Behind the headlines are layoffs, shuttered shops, and banks that won’t extend credit without proof of receivables. Officials talk about liquidity and long-term plans; what Carmen’s suppliers want is a clear calendar and an open pipeline for last year’s work.

Ciudad del Carmen’s business community says the story remains the same: 2025 has seen some payments, but the big hole is from last year. Gonzalo Hernández, a local business leader, warns that arrears from 2024 have pushed the city into recession, and there is still no firm date for settlement. He also notes a chilling effect: firms fear that suing over non-payment could result in the loss of future work.

Pemex 2024 arrears

The figure that matters most on the island is not a barrel count—it’s unpaid invoices. Companies describe a two-track reality. New contracts in 2025 bring a few lifelines. The backlog from 2024 blocks credit lines, payrolls, and any plans beyond next week. In recent days, Campeche’s Energy Cluster again pressed Pemex for clarity, saying the debt from 2024 “is what’s drowning us,” and warning that rumors have pushed expectations for those payments out years.

Why Carmen’s economy hurts first

Carmen is Mexico’s oil capital in practice, if not by charter. When the oil service chain stalls, the city stalls with it. Complex data backs the street-level pain. Statewide, Campeche’s economic activity fell 14.4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by a sharp drop in secondary activities—where oil and oil services sit—and weaker services. That slump set the stage for the local recession that business owners now describe.

Payments in 2025 don’t reach the whole chain

There has been movement. Some prime contractors have received partial payments since late 2024 and into 2025. However, subcontractors report that little of that money trickles down, leaving small and mid-sized firms that do the day-to-day work without sufficient funds to keep crews, equipment, and leases. That bottleneck is a significant reason why storefronts and service businesses in Carmen still feel stagnant.

A national debt problem with local consequences

The problem is bigger than one city. Pemex entered the summer with roughly 20 billion dollars in unpaid bills to suppliers and contractors, according to a letter from Mexico’s oil-services association (AMESPAC). The group warned the president in June that firms could halt operations if 2024 invoices weren’t processed and a payment calendar wasn’t set. Pemex’s own production has sagged during the squeeze.

Independent reporting has traced the backlog and its fallout across oil states. AMESPAC estimates more than 404 billion pesos in payables and about 15,000 jobs lost as companies shut down or mothball crews. The association says part of the logjam stems from work performed in 2024 that still hasn’t been registered for payment, leaving suppliers unable to factor or secure bank credit.

What suppliers say they need now

Locally, the ask is simple: register the 2024 work, pay it on a schedule, and keep 2025 current. Business leaders in Carmen say recent payments are welcome but too small to reverse the damage. Without a plan for 2024, firms will continue to cut staff and close doors. The fear of legal action—of being blacklisted from future bids—keeps many from the courts even as debts pile up.

There’s also a gap between what’s publicly reported and what companies can collect. Pemex’s monthly “payments and arrears” report counts only already-invoiced obligations. It explicitly excludes work received but not yet allowed to be billed, as well as items still under reconciliation. For a supplier, that’s the dead zone: you can’t borrow against revenue that isn’t recognized in the system.

The road ahead

Nationally, the administration has discussed refinancing Pemex, revising its payment structure, and prioritizing energy security. Those policies will be judged in places like Carmen, where a city’s recovery depends on whether last year’s work is recognized and paid. Until Pemex 2024 arrears move from rumor to a dated payment calendar, the island’s recession will keep dragging on—in payrolls, in storefronts, and in families waiting for checks that match the work already done.