New tropical depression strengthening, expected to become hurricane on Tuesday off the Jalisco coast

At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve-E was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 101.4 West.

The depression is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north.

The depression is expected to remain south of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane on Tuesday. The storm is expected to be named Kay when it reaches tropical storm status later today.

Puerto Vallarta can expect heavy rains in the next 72 hours, however the amount of rainfall and wind speeds will depend on when Kay begins to move north and how close that turn is to the coast of Mexico, which should be clearer by Monday morning.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to reach the coast of Jalisco and the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by Tuesday and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with isolatd storm totals of 5 inches, across coastal portions of southwestern Mexico from Guerrero northwestward to Jalisco over the next few days.

WIND: Gusty winds are likely near the coast of southwestern Mexico in outer rainbands during the next couple of days.

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