Shower activity associated with a low-pressure area located a few hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized during the last 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward near or just offshore the southern coast of Mexico.
There is a 90% chance of the storm system becoming a tropical storm this weekend as it moves up the coast of Mexico. If predictions are correct, the system will develop into Tropical Storm Rick.
Hurricane Season 2021
This year, the hurricane season in the Pacific began earlier than ever. Tropical storm Andrés formed on Sunday, May 9, off the coasts of Jalisco and Michoacán, and in doing so it broke a historical record, since never before, since there are records, had a system of that magnitude originated so soon in the northeastern part of this ocean. The previous record had been set by Tropical Storm Adrián, which emerged on May 10, 2017.
In addition, Andrés also anticipated the official start of the hurricane season in the Pacific, which begins each year on May 15 and ends on November 30.
Hurricane Predictions 2021
According to the SMN, the following systems are expected in 2021:
- Tropical storms: between 7 and 10.
- Strong hurricanes (categories 1 and 2 ): from 3 to 5.
- Intense hurricanes (categories 3, 4 or 5): from 4 to 5.
Total: between 14 and 20 tropical cyclones.
The data is in the average collected for this Ocean between 1991 and 2020, which is 15 cyclones.
