Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Sept. 4, 2026 – Forecasters on Friday gave a disturbance well offshore of southwestern Mexico a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days, but projected no direct Puerto Vallarta impact.
The National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. PDT outlook placed its 48-hour formation chance near zero. The seven-day probability remained 50%, which the agency classifies as medium.
Forecasters said a low-pressure area may develop early next week. It could move west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph while remaining “well offshore of Mexico,” the outlook said.
No storm watch for Jalisco or Nayarit
Neither Jalisco nor Nayarit was placed under a formal tropical storm watch or warning in the official notices reviewed.
The official Conagua weather post said a low could form south of the Baja California Peninsula. It gave the system a 50% development probability over seven days but named no affected state.
For English-speaking readers, the wording requires care. Conagua’s Spanish phrase “se mantiene en vigilancia” means forecasters are monitoring the system. It does not establish a formal tropical storm watch.
The NHC defines a tropical storm watch as notice that tropical-storm conditions are possible in a specified area within 48 hours. This disturbance had almost no chance of forming during that period.
I reviewed the Conagua post and NHC outlook for PVDN after an initial regional report placed Jalisco among states receiving attention. Neither official notice identified Puerto Vallarta, Bahía de Banderas, or Cabo Corrientes as a direct-impact area.
The 50% figure measures the chance of tropical cyclone formation somewhere within the forecast area. It does not mean a 50% chance of landfall in Jalisco, according to the NHC description of its outlook product.
Friday’s regional rain has a separate cause
The SMN’s Friday national forecast called for 25 to 50 millimeters of rain in northeastern and eastern Jalisco. It forecast 50 to 75 millimeters for northern and coastal Nayarit.
That bulletin did not attribute either forecast to the possible Norbert system.
Puerto Vallarta lies on Jalisco’s western coast, outside the state subregions named for the 25-to-50-millimeter category. That includes the Hotel Zone along Avenida Francisco Medina Ascencio, the Malecón and the Río Cuale corridor.
The Nayarit designation covered a broad coastal area. It did not provide a separate municipal forecast for Bahía de Banderas.
PVDN’s Puerto Vallarta hurricane season updates track confirmed local effects separately from basin-wide formation outlooks.
Norbert remains a conditional name
Norbert has not formed and is not the system’s official name.
The World Meteorological Organization’s 2026 eastern Pacific list places Norbert after Marie. However, NOAA assigns a name only when sustained winds reach at least 39 mph.
A tropical depression could develop first and remain unnamed. If another eastern Pacific system reaches tropical-storm strength before this disturbance, that system would receive the name Norbert.
Development odds increased overnight
Archived NHC outlooks show the seven-day probability at 40% late Wednesday. It increased to 50% late Thursday and remained there Friday morning.
The 48-hour probability stayed near zero, while the projected movement remained west-northwest and well offshore.
