Locals have been joking that winter took a vacation, and the numbers back it up. Puerto Vallarta has seen days running well above the seasonal norm, with the biggest jump showing up between Christmas and New Year’s. What’s behind the stubborn warmth, and how long can it last? Meteorologists say the usual drivers aren’t behaving as expected, which means the next few weeks could still swing: more hot afternoons, sudden overnight dips, and even the odd out-of-season shower.
A winter running hotter than normal
Puerto Vallarta and the wider bay region are seeing temperatures as much as five degrees Celsius above what’s typical for this time of year, according to Víctor Cornejo, a meteorologist who advises Civil Protection. He said the most noticeable spike came between Christmas and New Year’s, standing out sharply against the same holiday stretch in 2024, when conditions were much cooler.
For residents and winter visitors, it helps explain the strange feeling of stepping outside in what should be the “easy” season and getting hit with midday heat that feels more like late spring.
Why the heat has stuck around
Cornejo attributes the unusual warmth mainly to stronger-than-usual anticyclonic systems parked over the region. In plain terms, these high-pressure patterns tend to suppress cloud cover and keep the atmosphere more stable, allowing the sun to do its work day after day. The catch is that this strength doesn’t match the usual seasonal rhythm locals have come to expect.
He also said La Niña is currently in a weak phase, which has limited its influence. That matters because when the larger climate drivers are muted or out of position, the local pattern can start calling the shots, sometimes in ways that feel inconsistent from one week to the next.
What could change next
Cornejo expects a gradual drift back toward more “neutral” conditions, but not necessarily in a smooth line. He said the region could still see episodes of the traditional cabañuelas-style weather shifts around Bahía de Banderas, as well as isolated showers tied to atmospheric rivers, especially in February.
Cold fronts, meanwhile, have been pushing more forcefully into the Gulf of Mexico so far. Fronts dropping down through Baja California are the ones more likely to translate into short-lived cool-downs for western Mexico, including this coast. Even then, Cornejo cautioned that more stretches of elevated daytime temperatures remain on the table.
Looking ahead to the rest of 2026
Satellite observations, Cornejo noted, show above-average temperatures across large parts of Mexico and portions of the United States, while Canada has leaned cooler than normal. In Puerto Vallarta, where the typical temperature sits around 32°C, he said it’s possible those values will be exceeded during 2026.
He also flagged the possibility of El Niño returning later in the year. If that develops, Cornejo warned, record-level heat could be in play not just for Puerto Vallarta and Banderas Bay, but across wide swaths of the country. For now, he emphasized, it remains a scenario under watch, with forecasting models not yet precise enough to call it with confidence.
