Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, Sept. 20, 2026 — A Pacific disturbance south of Manzanillo had a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression within 48 hours early Sunday, according to U.S. forecasters.
The system, designated EP99, was about 400 miles, or 645 kilometers, south of Manzanillo, Colima. It was moving northward while remaining offshore.
No official forecast track or coastal watches had been issued for Puerto Vallarta. Municipal Civil Protection officials were monitoring the disturbance.
No direct Puerto Vallarta impact forecast
The National Hurricane Center’s eastern Pacific outlook indicated that environmental conditions favored additional development. The agency placed the probability of formation at 90% through Tuesday.
That probability measures the chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or storm. It does not predict whether the system will reach Puerto Vallarta.
Our review of the advisory found no forecast stating that EP99 would enter Banderas Bay or cross the Jalisco coast. A formal track normally becomes available after forecasters determine that a tropical depression has formed.
Residents should therefore distinguish between a high chance of cyclone formation and a forecast of local landfall. They are not the same warning.
Rain and elevated seas remain separate local concerns
Puerto Vallarta already faces wet-season weather risks that are not necessarily caused by EP99.
Mexico’s National Meteorological Service forecast very heavy rain for western and southwestern Jalisco. The agency said the rainfall could produce localized flooding, landslides and rising rivers or streams.
The official regional weather forecast also called for waves between 1.5 and 2.5 meters along the Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán coasts.
Forecasters did not attribute all of those conditions to EP99. Several weather systems can influence rainfall and ocean conditions across western Mexico during September.
For Puerto Vallarta residents, heavy rain can affect low-lying sections of Avenida Francisco Medina Ascencio and roads near the Pitillal, Cuale and Ameca rivers. Conditions can vary widely between the Hotel Zone, Centro, Emiliano Zapata and hillside neighborhoods.
Drivers should avoid entering flooded streets or attempting to cross moving water. Beach users and small-boat operators should follow instructions from lifeguards, harbor officials and Civil Protection personnel when sea conditions change.
System remains under observation
EP99 was still classified as a disturbance Sunday morning rather than a named tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center assigns a name only after a system develops a defined circulation and sustained winds reach tropical-storm strength.
Puerto Vallarta’s Civil Protection and Fire Department operates from its regional base near the Río Pitillal. The agency coordinates local responses to flooding, landslides, high surf, and other storm-related emergencies.
The regional Civil Protection office lists emergency and public contact numbers: 322-225-0764 and 322-224-4706. Residents facing an immediate emergency should call 911.
