The strongest Mexican peso close since September 17, 2024, at 19.2398 per dollar underscores the US–China trade war’s impact on currency markets, driving a 2.30% weekly gain.
The Mexican peso closed the week at its strongest level since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, rallying 2.30% as traders responded to a softer dollar amid ongoing US–China trade tensions. According to the Bank of Mexico (Banxico), the peso finished Friday at 19.2398 per US dollar, up 0.37%—or 7.23 cents—from the previous session. That marked the most robust close for the peso since September 17, 2024, when it stood at 19.1399 per dollar.
Since Sheinbaum’s six-year term began, the peso peaked at 21.8829 on December 31, 2024, when market jitters and a strong US economy pushed it to its weakest point. In contrast, last week’s gains underscore how quickly sentiment can swing when the greenback loses ground.
The Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency against six major peers, fell 2.06% to 99.10 points on Friday. A weaker DXY usually lifts emerging-market currencies, and the peso was among the top performers in recent weeks.
Across global markets, several currencies outpaced the peso’s advance. Russia’s ruble led gains, strengthening 17.05% against the dollar. Sweden’s krona rose 7.21%, while Norway’s krone improved 4.61%. The Swiss franc added 5.46%, the euro 4.75%, Brazil’s real 7.14%, Denmark’s krone 2.67% and Japan’s yen 0.50%. These moves reflect broad dollar weakness as investors weigh the latest trade-war developments.
At the end of 2024, the peso weakened amid a resilient US economy that outperformed International Monetary Fund forecasts and a moderate cycle of interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. That downturn accelerated as global demand for risk assets softened, geopolitical fears rose and commodity prices fell, putting pressure on many emerging-market currencies.
In 2025, the peso traded within a fairly stable band against the dollar as Mexico’s economy held steady. “We’ve seen a parallel channel with a downward dollar trend and the peso showing resilience,” Monex analysts wrote in a recent study, noting that a resolution to US–Mexico trade issues and easing global tensions could support further gains.
Despite recent strength, risks to the peso persist. Gabriela Siller, Director of Analysis at Banco Base, warns that exchange-rate volatility will remain high through year-end. “The US–China trade war continues, and the threat of tariffs on Mexico hasn’t gone away,” she said. Siller added that markets may soon focus on the USMCA review, officially set for July 2026 but possibly accelerated, while domestic factors—such as judicial elections and credit-rating risks—could sway speculative flows.
Bets on peso appreciation have already climbed sharply. On the Chicago futures market, net long positions favoring the peso rose 404% since Sheinbaum assumed office. Speculators held 12,400 contracts bullish on the peso during the week ending September 27, 2024. By May 25, 2025, that figure jumped to 62,500 contracts—an increase of 50,100 contracts.
“The Mexican peso continues to draw carry-trade strategies,” noted Felipe Mendoza, a market analyst at ATFX LATAM. He pointed to Mexico’s interest-rate advantage and solid macroeconomic performance as key attractions for investors seeking yield.
Looking ahead, the peso’s gains likely hinge on global trade developments, US monetary policy, and Mexico’s domestic outlook. While many traders view the current level as a buying opportunity, any flare-ups in trade disputes or shifts in risk appetite could quickly reverse the trend. For now, the peso’s performance offers a snapshot of how Mexico’s economy weathers external shocks and how closely tied its fortunes remain to the ebb and flow of the US dollar.
The strongest Mexican peso close since September 17, 2024, at 19.2398 per dollar underscores the US–China trade war’s impact on currency markets, driving a 2.30% weekly gain.
