It’s important to remember that tropical storms and hurricanes can change course rapidly, the current landfall predictions are still five-days out, and as residents in Puerto Vallarta know, these systems change course daily as they form.
Tropical Depression 21-E in eastern Pacific Ocean before strengthening into Tropical Storm Vance Thursday afternoon.
Further strengthening will occur through this weekend as the tropical cyclone remains over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific and in an environment that lacks disruptive wind shear, which can shred apart tropical systems.
The system is likely to strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday.
Through this weekend, Vance will pose hazards only to shipping interests as it stays well south of mainland Mexico.
That will change next week as a turn to the north, then northeast is expected. The Mexican states of southern Baja California Sur, Sinaloa and Jalisco are being put on alert for a potential landfall of Vance around Tuesday of next week.
Cabo San Lucas, Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta lie within the zones that have been put on alert.
While Vance will likely be past its peak intensity when it comes onshore, it should still bring a danger of flooding rain, mudslides, damaging winds and pounding surf along the west coast.
Residents and visitors to Manzanillo should also keep a close eye on this developing system. A sharper turn to the northeast could put the city and its state of Colima in its path.
However, even if Vance remains to the north, Manzanillo would still face rough surf and potential downpours.
The impacts from Vance may not stop when it reaches the coast. Its heavy rain may get drawn across northern Mexico and into the U.S. states of Texas and New Mexico.
All residents and visitors in western Mexico should continue monitoring the situation.