Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – The Mexican peso gains ground against a falling dollar after US President Trump delays EU tariff threat until July 9, boosting market optimism and easing trade tension—peso gains ground
On Tuesday morning the Mexican peso appreciated against the US dollar, shrugging off recent weakness after President Donald Trump postponed his threat to impose tariffs on European Union goods. The spot rate stood at 19.2056 pesos per dollar, compared with Monday’s close of 19.2359—a gain of 3.03 cents, or 0.16 percent. Traders attributed the move to renewed appetite for risk after Trump set a new deadline of July 9 for reaching an agreement with Brussels.
The dollar traded in a 10-cent band, moving between a high of 19.2869 and a low of 19.1824 pesos. Meanwhile, the Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.49 percent to 99.48 as the greenback edged higher against a basket of six major currencies. Emerging-market currencies like the peso tend to outperform when trade tensions ease and investors chase higher yields in riskier assets.
Trump announced on Monday that he would push back the EU tariff deadline until July 9, buying more time for negotiations. Had the suspension period ended without a deal, he had threatened duties of up to 50 percent on a broad range of European imports. The delay followed last week’s slide in the peso to its weakest level since October, as markets braced for fresh bilateral skirmishes.
“We expect the recovery bias to continue; breaking through the support level at 19.18 pesos will signal a favorable outcome,” wrote Grupo Financiero Banorte in a Tuesday research note. The next technical target, the bank added, lies at 19.10. A sustained move below 19.18 would reinforce the view that the peso can capitalize on lower trade tensions.
Monex analysts echoed that view. “The peso began the session falling while the dollar regained ground against its major counterparts; the local currency subsequently returned to positive territory, driven by lower trade tensions and market optimism regarding the currency,” they said. Monex pointed to a pickup in investor willingness to hold emerging-market assets following the tariff reprieve.
Market participants also eyed the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy meeting tomorrow and the Bank of Mexico’s on Thursday. Banxico’s quarterly report, due alongside its minutes, could offer fresh clues on inflation outlook and interest-rate paths. Analysts expect both central banks to stress caution amid sticky price pressures.
Since the start of 2025, the peso has hovered near the 19.20 mark, reflecting a tug-of-war between firmer US interest-rate expectations and Mexico’s relatively stable domestic fundamentals. While higher US yields often support the dollar, any sign of easing trade or geopolitical friction tends to lift the peso and other emerging-market currencies.
“The peso often mirrors shifts in US rate expectations and global risk appetite,” said one currency strategist at a major investment bank. “With the Fed minutes due, investors will watch for any change in tone on rate hikes, while Banxico’s report could reinforce Mexico’s current stance.”
Looking ahead, traders will monitor US Treasury yields, dollar momentum against other majors, and data on global growth. On the domestic front, Mexico’s economic calendar this week includes retail-sales figures, which could add to the peso’s near-term volatility.
For now, the market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. A break below 19.18 per dollar would confirm that the peso can build on Tuesday’s gains. But should fresh policy risks or surprising data emerge, the currency could swing back toward the upper end of its trading range.
As investors weigh the Fed minutes and Banxico’s inflation outlook, the peso’s path will hinge on the balance between these competing forces: global risk appetite, US monetary policy, and domestic price stability. In the coming days, the currency’s sensitivity to headlines on trade and rates will likely determine whether today’s advance proves a turning point—or a brief respite before the next leg of volatility.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - The Mexican peso gains ground against a falling dollar after US President Trump delays EU tariff threat until July 9, boosting market optimism and easing trade tension—peso gains ground
