Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, October 23, 2026 – Vance became a hurricane early Friday, with forecasters predicting rapid strengthening and dangerous surf along parts of Mexico’s Pacific coast this weekend.
At 3 a.m. Puerto Vallarta time, Vance had sustained winds of 140 km/h, or 85 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane. The National Hurricane Center’s advisory placed its center 710 kilometers south-southwest of Acapulco and 930 kilometers south-southeast of Manzanillo, moving north-northwest at 9 km/h. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect.
For Puerto Vallarta, the weekend question is how Vance’s slow approach could affect beaches, boat trips and everyday travel while its center remains offshore.
Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, or SMN, forecasts 2–3-meter waves along Jalisco’s coast on Saturday and Sunday, according to its extended outlook issued Thursday afternoon. Those regional figures should not be read as a forecast for every beach inside Banderas Bay.
The NHC expects Vance’s swells to reach portions of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week, warning of “life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.” For anyone planning to swim or take a boat excursion, that makes beach flags, lifeguard instructions and departure-day checks with the operator particularly relevant.
The wind outlook currently puts Puerto Vallarta’s exposure considerably below locations farther south. The NHC’s location-specific probabilities give the city a 5% chance of sustained tropical-storm-force winds over the five-day forecast period. That threshold begins at 63 km/h, or 39 mph. The percentage measures wind risk; it does not describe the likelihood of dangerous surf or flooding.
Vance has strengthened since Vallarta Daily’s Thursday tropical-storm update. The latest forecast brings it to major-hurricane strength by Friday night, with sustained winds around 185 km/h, or 115 mph, through Saturday afternoon. Its forecast track keeps the center offshore through the five-day outlook, moving gradually toward waters south of Michoacán and Colima.
That path needs close watching from late Sunday onward. In its forecast discussion, the NHC said models agree relatively well for about the first 60 hours. After that, the winds steering Vance are expected to weaken, and the projected tracks spread farther apart. Forecasters said confidence for that later period “remains lower than normal.”
Rain is the other practical concern. The SMN’s extended outlook forecasts localized totals of 25–50 millimeters in western and southwestern Jalisco on Saturday. Sunday’s strongest rainfall category shifts to southern Jalisco. These are regional forecasts, rather than a prediction that Puerto Vallarta will receive that amount on either day.
The agency warns that heavier downpours can raise rivers and streams and cause flooding, standing water, and landslides. Residents making weekend journeys should watch local rainfall and road notices, along with the hurricane’s position.
The coastal watch also extends beyond Sunday. For Monday, October 26, the same SMN outlook projects 4–5-meter waves and coastal gusts of 60–80 km/h in Jalisco. Anyone arranging a Monday boat outing should check the updated marine forecast and any navigation restrictions again Sunday evening.
