The Mexican peso extends gains to 19.1788 per dollar as US jobless claims rise and the dollar weakens, with investors eyeing Fed policy and local consumer confidence.
On Thursday morning, the Mexican peso extended its gains, trading at 19.1788 pesos per US dollar, up 2.09 cents (0.11 percent) from Wednesday’s close of 19.1997. Data published by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) showed that the peso strengthened amid a softer US dollar, which weakened after a report revealed an unexpected rise in American unemployment benefit applications.
The Intercontinental Exchange’s Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US currency against six major peers, fell by 0.18 percent to 98.64. In intraday trading, the peso traded between a high of 19.2262 and a low of 19.1503, reaching its strongest point against the dollar since October.
On Wednesday, the US Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims climbed by 8,000 for the week ending May 31, reaching 247,000—exceeding market forecasts of 235,000. The data signaled potential softness in the labor market just before Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate reports. Employment figures play an essential role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions as it seeks to keep consumer prices stable while maintaining full employment.
“Trade tensions with the United States and signs of labor weakness are driving the markets. Investors are waiting for a possible trade agreement between the Donald Trump administration and China’s Xi Jinping,” said consultancy Metanalisis.
Beyond US jobless claims, global monetary actions also influenced currency markets. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a decision to lower interest rates—an outcome widely anticipated by analysts. The ECB’s move added further downward pressure on the euro, which contributed to a decline in the dollar against other major currencies.
Domestically, Mexico’s consumer confidence index rose to 46.7 points in May (seasonally adjusted), marking its highest reading so far in 2025. Improved consumer morale suggests that households felt more optimistic about the economy and their personal finances heading into the summer months.
Analysts note that a mix of external and internal factors underpins the peso’s recent strength. “Weakness in US economic data tends to weigh on the dollar, while local indicators—such as an uptick in consumer confidence—boost the peso,” said an economist at a Mexico City investment bank. Some traders also pointed to ongoing expectations that Banxico may hold its policy rate steady amid signs of moderated inflation.
Investors now have their eyes fixed on Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report. A stronger-than-expected reading could lift the dollar, putting downward pressure on the peso, while a soft reading might give further support to emerging-market currencies. Market participants will also watch remarks from Federal Reserve officials for clues about the central bank’s next policy moves.
Looking ahead, some strategists expect the peso to maintain its gains if US data continue to signal labor market cooling. However, any surprise in US jobs or hints of a shift in Fed guidance could quickly reverse the trend. On the Mexican side, another key release will be Friday’s retail sales report, which could underscore the extent of domestic demand.
For now, traders remain cautious but optimistic. Following Thursday’s trading window, the peso’s resilience comes at a time when global uncertainty lingers. Investors will closely monitor whether the peso can hold near the 19.15–19.18 range, which would mark its strongest zone since late last year.
Featured Exchange Rates (Thursday morning):
- Spot rate: 19.1788 pesos per US dollar
- Wednesday’s close: 19.1997 pesos per US dollar (Banxico)
- Daily range: High 19.2262 | Low 19.1503
As the week unfolds, markets will react to economic data on both sides of the border. For now, the peso’s bid against the dollar underscores how shifts in US labor metrics and global central bank moves continue to shape Mexico’s currency.
The Mexican peso extends gains to 19.1788 per dollar as US jobless claims rise and the dollar weakens, with investors eyeing . . .
