After the impact of Hurricanes “Adrián” and “Beatriz”, both of which affected western Mexico’s coastlines with heavy rains and winds, meteorologists are predicting the arrival of a third cyclone, “Calvin”. The previous two cyclones reached category 2 and 1 on the Saffir Simpson scale, respectively, with both causing disruptions across Jalisco state.
The National Meteorological Service issued a report on Monday, July 3, indicating the possible development of a low-pressure zone south of Guerrero and Oaxaca’s coasts. The cyclonic development probability has increased to 60% over the next seven days. If this pattern persists, it will evolve into “Calvin”, the third cyclone of the season, which is also projected to follow a trajectory along Mexico’s coastlines, including Jalisco.
Tropical wave number 9 is currently moving across Mexico’s southeast and interacting with a low-pressure channel in that region. This system is causing intense, localized rains in the states of Tabasco, Chiapas, and Oaxaca, as well as heavy rains on the Yucatan Peninsula.
A second low-pressure channel, extending from the north to the south of the country, combined with high-atmospheric instability over the northwest, north, and west of the national territory, will generate occasional to very heavy rains in these regions.
A third low-pressure channel over eastern and central Mexico, coupled with the influx of moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to cause showers and heavy rains in those regions. These rain events, ranging from strong to intense, could lead to an increase in river and stream levels, landslides, and flooding in low-lying areas.
The National Meteorological Service’s report also warns of hot to extremely hot conditions over the northwestern and northeastern states of the Mexican Republic. As the potential third cyclone of the season develops, the Mexican populace, particularly those in Jalisco, are urged to remain alert to weather updates and be prepared for possible evacuation if necessary.
