Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco, October 14, 2026 – Tropical Storm Trudy strengthened Wednesday and is forecast to become a major hurricane Friday, with Puerto Vallarta’s wind risk concentrated over the weekend.
For residents making weekend plans, the practical question is how much weather could reach Bahía de Banderas if Trudy’s center stays offshore.
The National Hurricane Center’s Wednesday morning wind forecast gives Puerto Vallarta a 13% chance of sustained tropical-storm-force winds during the five-day forecast period. Those are winds of at least 63 km/h, or 39 mph, with the listed risk concentrated between Saturday morning and Monday morning.
That percentage measures wind exposure, rather than the chance of landfall. It also leaves rain and ocean conditions as separate concerns. Farther south, Manzanillo has a 63% chance of tropical-storm-force winds in the same forecast, placing the stronger wind threat closer to that portion of the coast.
Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional storm bulletin projects Trudy’s center about 100 kilometers southwest of Manzanillo early Sunday. By early Monday, it places the center about 140 kilometers west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes.
That path would keep the center offshore as it passes south, then southwest, of the Puerto Vallarta area. It remains a forecast, however, and the distance between the storm and the coast will help determine how much weather reaches the bay.
Trudy has gained strength since forming Tuesday. At 9 a.m. Wednesday, sustained winds had reached 95 km/h, or 60 mph. The center was about 600 kilometers south of Acapulco and moving west-northwest at 20 km/h.
The NHC’s 9 a.m. advisory calls for hurricane strength Wednesday night and major hurricane strength Friday. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect for Trudy at that hour, although forecasters expected watches for portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico later Wednesday or overnight.
The Mexican forecast takes Trudy to Category 4 by Friday evening, with sustained winds around 215 km/h. It then projects weakening to Category 2 early Sunday and Category 1 early Monday. Those categories describe the storm’s strongest sustained winds; they are not forecasts of wind speeds in Puerto Vallarta.
Hurricane Simon complicates the track. The two systems could move close enough to influence each other’s direction, the NHC said.
“There remains significant track spread among the models,” forecaster Hagen wrote in the Wednesday forecast discussion, explaining that the new projected path had shifted eastward over the next three days.
That shift brings the forecast closer to Mexico’s coast. Forecasters still expect Trudy to approach southwestern and west-central Mexico as a major hurricane before stronger upper-level winds help weaken it later in the forecast period.
For Puerto Vallarta, an offshore passage would still leave ocean conditions worth watching. The NHC expects Trudy-generated swells to reach southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend, potentially producing dangerous surf and rip currents.
For example, a weekend boat trip in Bahía de Banderas could encounter worsening sea conditions even if the city never experiences tropical-storm-force winds. Whether a particular departure can operate will depend on local conditions and port instructions.
Rain presents another concern. The advisories reviewed Wednesday morning do not provide a Trudy-specific rainfall total for Puerto Vallarta.
The SMN’s regional weather forecast warns that heavy rainfall in the central Pacific region can raise rivers and streams and cause flooding and landslides. It attributes Wednesday’s western Mexico rainfall threat to Simon, while Trudy’s immediate rainfall influence remains farther south.
Locally, Vallarta’s steep hills and drainage network help explain why rainfall deserves attention alongside wind. Water running toward the bay passes through streets, culverts, arroyos and river channels, so an offshore hurricane category alone cannot describe the flood risk on a particular road.
The NHC is urging residents along southwestern and west-central Mexico to review their hurricane plans as Trudy develops. Its next complete advisory is scheduled for 3 p.m. Wednesday, Puerto Vallarta time.
