Puerto Vallarta, Mexico – The Mexican peso extended its weekly advance on Thursday, finishing at 19.5809 per U.S. dollar, its strongest close of the month, after the greenback retreated broadly in global markets. The session’s low of 19.5611 left the currency within sight of October’s multi-month floor, while the day’s high of 19.6407 underscored lingering volatility.
The peso’s tail-wind came from another leg down in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which fell 0.62 % to 99.29, its weakest level in almost three months, as investors trimmed “Trump-trade” positions and hunted for higher-yielding assets.
Currency desks said the move reflected growing doubts that Washington will dial back steep tariffs on Chinese imports. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the administration “will take no unilateral action to reduce tariffs,” even as Beijing insisted all duties must disappear before formal talks resume.
President Donald Trump countered Chinese assertions on Thursday, claiming negotiators had spoken “earlier today,” but the lack of concrete progress left markets bracing for a protracted standoff. Analysts note that every flare-up in the dispute pushes U.S. growth expectations—and the dollar—lower, while high-yielding emerging-market currencies such as the peso reap short-term gains.
Local fundamentals still constructive
Mexico’s backdrop also helped:
- Inflation accelerated slightly to 3.96 % in the first half of April—above consensus but still inside Banxico’s 3 ± 1 pp target—keeping the door open to another quarter-point rate cut next month.
- Weekly U.S. jobless claims rose in line with forecasts, while durable-goods orders beat expectations; the mixed print underpinned risk sentiment without reviving the dollar.
- President Claudia Sheinbaum dismissed talk of a first-quarter technical recession, saying fiscal support will cushion the economy. First-quarter GDP figures are due from INEGI next week.
“The peso is simply riding a weaker dollar while traders parse Mexico’s benign inflation surprise,” brokerage Monex told clients, adding that the currency’s range “remains tight absent fresh trade headlines.”
Economist Humberto Calzada of Rankia Latin America cautioned that a sharper-than-expected GDP stumble could send the peso “back toward the high-19s or even 20-per-dollar area.”
With the peso up roughly 1.3 % so far this week and U.S.–China rhetoric stuck in neutral, short-term technicals favor further peso strength toward the 19.40 zone. Still, strategists warn that any upside surprise in U.S. inflation—or a sudden thaw in trade relations—could spark a dollar rebound and unwind gains quickly.
For now, investors will watch tomorrow’s local economic calendar for Banxico’s quarterly inflation report and await INEGI’s GDP flash in the coming week to gauge whether the peso’s rally can outlast the dollar’s slump.
Puerto Vallarta, Mexico - The Mexican peso extended its weekly advance on Thursday, finishing at 19.5809 per U.S. dollar, its strongest . . .
